Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Nightflyers Enters Near the Middle of the Rankings

By | December 5, 2018

Syfy’s new series Nightflyers (based on the George R.R. Martin story of the same name) debuted on Sunday with a 0.15 rating based on same day viewing for the 18-49 demographic and 623K total viewers (I missed this one in the Weekly Roundup post).  Those are okay ratings for its network and the show only slipped a tick to a 0.14 score on Monday.  It opens in the Scorecard in the Number 14 slot above Syfy’s other two Fall entries, three better than Z Nation (at the Number 17 slot) and well above Van Helsing which is languishing at the Number 22 slot. Nightflyers will air episodes nightly through Thursday of this week and next, airing out its full ten-episode first season run across two weeks. Nat Geo’s Mars slipped near the end of the rankings to the Number 25 slot, but it could still be saved if its global viewership is good. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through December 2nd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.03 0.50 305.0% Renewal Likely
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 0.67 0.34 95.2% Renewal Likely
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (5) Riverdale (O) CW 0.43 0.34 26.0% Renewal Likely
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.41 0.34 20.5% Renewal Possible
7 (7) Manifest (O) NBC 1.44 1.23 17.0% Renewal Possible
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.38 0.34 9.0% Renewal Possible
9 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.37 0.34 8.0% Renewal Possible
10 (10) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.97 1.00 -3.2% Renewal Possible
11 (11) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.33 0.34 -4.5% Renewal Possible
12 (12) Charmed (O) CW 0.33 0.34 -5.5% Renewal Possible
13 (13) Legacies (O) CW 0.32 0.34 -7.0% Renewal Possible
14 (n/a) Nightflyers Syfy 0.15 0.17 -11.8% Renewal Possible
15 (14) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.30 0.34 -12.8% Renewal Possible
16 (15) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -15.6% Renewal Possible
17 (16) Z Nation Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.3% Renewal Possible
18 (17) Outlander (O) Starz 0.16 0.20 -20.0% Renewed
19 (18) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.71 1.00 -28.8% Renewal Possible
20 (19) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.84 1.23 -32.1% Renewed
21 (20) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.69 1.06 -35.2% On the Bubble
22 (21) Van Helsing Syfy 0.10 0.17 -42.5% On the Bubble
23 (22) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Renewal Possible
24 (24) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancellation Likely
25 (23) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -60.4% Renewal Possible
26 (25) Midnight Texas (O) NBC 0.40 1.23 -67.6% Cancellation Likely

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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