Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Manifest Remains in the Top 10 in the Rankings

By | November 21, 2018

Despite the fact the NBC’s Manifest has been losing altitude the last few weeks ratings-wise, its numbers remain good when compared to the other programming on that network. The show is currently at the Number 6 slot in our Scorecard and has remained relatively stable there. It is performing 24% better than the network benchmark (see definition below) and this one also continues to rank in the Top 5 among broadcast network shows based on the Live+7 delayed viewing. So unless it takes a dive later in the season, expect this one to be back for a second year. Slipping this week was The CW’s Legends of Tomorrow which dropped one slot to Number 15 as that show’s numbers have been on the lite side this season. Starz’s Outlander also slipped one slot (to Number 17), but that network does not pay as much attention to the same day viewing numbers. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 18th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.03 0.50 306.9% Renewal Likely
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 0.70 0.35 102.7% Renewal Likely
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (5) Riverdale (O) CW 0.44 0.35 27.4% Renewal Likely
6 (6) Manifest (O) NBC 1.54 1.24 23.9% Renewal Possible
7 (7) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.35 20.7% Renewal Possible
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.38 0.35 11.0% Renewal Possible
9 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.38 0.35 10.0% Renewal Possible
10 (10) Charmed (O) CW 0.35 0.35 1.4% Renewal Possible
11 (11) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.34 0.35 -1.5% Renewal Possible
12 (12) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.96 1.00 -3.9% Renewal Possible
13 (13) Legacies (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -5.9% Renewal Possible
14 (15) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.09 0.10 -12.9% Renewal Possible
15 (14) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.30 0.35 -13.1% Renewal Possible
16 (17) Z Nation Syfy 0.14 0.17 -19.3% Renewal Possible
17 (16) Outlander (O) Starz 0.16 0.20 -20.0% Renewed
18 (18) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.71 1.00 -28.8% Renewal Possible
19 (19) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.84 1.24 -32.7% Renewal Possible
20 (20) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.69 1.06 -35.4% On the Bubble
21 (21) Van Helsing Syfy 0.10 0.17 -42.0% On the Bubble
22 (22) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -50.0% Renewal Possible
23 (23) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancellation Likely
24 (24) Midnight Texas (O) NBC 0.40 1.24 -67.9% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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