Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Outlander Enters in the Top 10

By | November 7, 2018

Despite the fact that Starz’s Outlander returned down in the ratings for its fourth season, it starts off in the Top 10 in our Scorecard at the Number 9 slot because the show is still performing well compared to other scripted entries on that network.  That one has already been renewed through a sixth season, so it will be around for at least a few more years.  IFC’s Stan Against Evil started much lower in the rankings as it enters one from the bottom at the Number 23 slot.  But that one may have taken a hit because its third season debuted on Halloween night, so I expect to improve in next week’s rankings.  Dropping this week is The CW’s Black Lightning and FOX’s The Gifted, both of which are experiencing some ratings struggles.  And NBC’s Midnight, Texas remains in the bottom slot as that show has gotten off to a weak start in its second season. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 4th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.08 0.50 316.8% Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.00 0.50 100.8% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.73 0.36 99.0% Renewal Likely
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 37.8% Renewal Possible
5 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.47 0.36 28.1% Renewal Likely
6 (5) Manifest (O) NBC 1.62 1.30 24.5% Renewal Possible
7 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.45 0.36 23.5% Renewal Possible
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.43 0.36 16.7% Renewal Possible
9 (n/a) Outlander (O) Starz 0.21 0.20 5.0% Renewed
10 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.38 0.36 2.9% Renewal Possible
11 (10) Charmed (O) CW 0.38 0.36 2.9% Renewal Possible
12 (12) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.98 1.01 -3.1% Renewal Possible
13 (11) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.35 0.36 -3.9% Renewal Possible
14 (15) Legacies (O) CW 0.35 0.36 -3.9% Renewal Possible
15 (14) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.30 0.36 -17.6% Renewal Possible
16 (13) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -18.0% Renewal Possible
17 (16) Z Nation Syfy 0.13 0.17 -22.4% Renewal Possible
18 (17) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.72 1.01 -29.4% Renewal Possible
19 (19) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.85 1.30 -34.5% Renewal Possible
20 (18) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.70 1.09 -35.7% On the Bubble
21 (20) Van Helsing Syfy 0.11 0.17 -37.6% Renewal Possible
22 (21) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancellation Likely
23 (n/a) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.03 0.08 -62.5% Renewal Possible
24 (22) Midnight Texas (O) NBC 0.40 1.30 -69.2% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

2 thoughts on “Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Outlander Enters in the Top 10

  1. Anna Bolic

    Outlander’s ratings only measure broadcast-time viewings on the STARZ network. Far more important to STARZ are the number of views on their app both before and after the official airtime, international views, and views on Amazon Prime, Hulu, etc.. STARZ relies on subscriptions, not advertisers.

    1. johnnyjay Post author

      Agreed, what Nielsen is reporting for Starz shows only part of the picture. The live viewing is not as important to that network since there are no sponsors running adds. All of the pay channels are focusing much more on digital viewing, and my guess is that Outlander continues to perform strong there.


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