Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Midnight Texas Starts at the Bottom of the Rankings

By | October 31, 2018

NBC’s The Good Place has to be glad that Midnight, Texas (NBC) and Channel Zero (Syfy) entered the rankings this week because those two relieved it from the bottom slot (and Van Helsing fell below it) which helps its Season 3 numbers look better by comparison. The Good Place is now in the Number 19 slot (three from the bottom) and its 35% variance from the network benchmark does not look quite as bad as the show’s below it. Entering at the bottom of the rankings this week is returning series Midnight, Texas which debuted pretty low this last Friday. It may have been impacted by World Series coverage, but it has a long way to climb to get to acceptable numbers. One slot above that show is Syfy’s Channel Zero which is doing an out-of-Prime-Time burn-off of its fourth season episodes before likely getting sent to the Network Executioner. Syfy’s Van Helsing dropped to the Number 20 slot as its numbers remain down in its third season. Higher up in the charts, The CW’s Charmed and CBS’s God Friended Me both dropped this week, though they may have been impacted by World Series coverage and could rebound next week. Most of the rest of the movement was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through October 28th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.09 0.50 317.5% Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.04 0.50 108.3% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.73 0.37 98.9% Renewal Likely
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.42 0.30 39.6% Renewal Possible
5 (6) Manifest (O) NBC 1.70 1.33 27.5% Renewal Possible
6 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.47 0.37 26.6% Renewal Possible
6 (8) Riverdale (O) CW 0.47 0.37 26.6% Renewal Likely
8 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.43 0.37 17.5% Renewal Possible
9 (10) Arrow (O) CW 0.40 0.37 8.5% Renewal Possible
10 (7) Charmed (O) CW 0.40 0.37 8.5% Renewal Possible
11 (12) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.37 0.37 -0.6% Renewal Possible
12 (11) God Friended Me (O) CBS 1.02 1.03 -1.1% Renewal Possible
13 (13) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -17.5% Renewal Possible
14 (n/a) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.30 0.37 -18.6% Renewal Possible
14 (n/a) Legacies (O) CW 0.30 0.37 -18.6% Renewal Possible
16 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.14 0.17 -19.1% Renewal Possible
17 (15) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.70 1.03 -32.1% Renewal Possible
18 (16) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.73 1.11 -34.9% On the Bubble
19 (18) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.86 1.33 -35.5% Renewal Possible
20 (17) Van Helsing Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.8% Renewal Possible
21 (n/a) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.06 0.17 -62.7% Cancellation Likely
22 (n/a) Midnight Texas (O) NBC 0.40 1.33 -70.0% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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