Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Van Helsing Drops in the Rankings, Arrow Enters in the Lower Half

By | October 24, 2018

Syfy’s Van Helsing saw its ratings slip notably this past Friday, and that translates to a drop in its rankings in the second week of the Fall Scorecard. It slid to Number 18 this week (one of the three slots it lost was due to Arrow entering the rankings for the first time) which puts it one rung away from the bottom. This show entered the season in a precarious position which I previously discussed at this link. If it does not rebound from its current lows, it will be going On the Bubble, and in any case fans need to make a Call to Action on the social nets to support the show. Also dropping this week was Syfy’s Z Nation which slipped to a series low rating on Friday causing it to drop to the Number 14 slot.

Entering the Scorecard this week is The CW’s Arrow which starts out in the lower half at the rankings of 10. That show is growing a bit long in the tooth and could be ending this season or next depending on how the network decides to proceed with its Arrow-verse shows. Black Lightning slipped a bit to Number 12 and it is currently the most vulnerable of the network’s superhero entries. Most of the rest of the movement was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through October 21st:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.13 0.50 326.7% Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.07 0.50 113.0% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.75 0.38 100.0% Renewal Likely
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.43 0.30 44.3% Renewal Possible
5 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.50 0.38 33.3% Renewal Possible
6 (5) Manifest (O) NBC 1.70 1.37 23.9% Renewal Possible
7 (6) Charmed (O) CW 0.45 0.38 20.0% Renewal Possible
7 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.45 0.38 20.0% Renewal Likely
7 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.45 0.38 20.0% Renewal Possible
10 (n/a) Arrow (O) CW 0.40 0.38 6.7% Renewal Possible
11 (11) God Friended Me (O) CBS 1.10 1.06 3.6% Renewal Possible
12 (10) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.35 0.38 -6.7% Renewal Possible
13 (13) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -16.7% Renewal Possible
14 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.14 0.17 -17.6% Renewal Possible
15 (16) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.73 1.06 -31.7% Renewal Possible
16 (15) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.73 1.11 -34.8% On the Bubble
17 (14) Van Helsing Syfy 0.11 0.17 -35.3% Renewal Possible
18 (17) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.88 1.37 -36.2% Renewal Possible

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.