Freeform’s new series Siren had a good debut last week and that finds it entering the Cancellation Watch Scorecard at the Number 8 slot. That network’s other currently airing series Shadowhunters is not doing as good and it slipped to Number 19 in the current rankings. Also dropping this week was FOX’s The Last Man on Earth as its numbers remain low. It slipped three slots to Number 22. Expect to see some slippage from ABC shows Agents of SHIELD, Once Upon A Time, and Kevin (Probably) Saves the World as the high ratings that the Rosanne reboot has pulled thus far will skew that network’s average up, and those three genre entries are among its poorer performers. Most of the rest of the movement in the scorecard this week was incidental.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through April 1st (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.43 | 0.50 | 586.0% | 5.73 | Renewed |
| 2 (3) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (2) | Krypton | Syfy | 0.36 | 0.17 | 111.8% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 4 (4) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.76 | 0.41 | 86.5% | 1.64 | Renewal Likely |
| 5 (5) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.02 | 56.3% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (7) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 55.4% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 8 (n/a) | Siren | Freeform | 0.30 | 0.20 | 50.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 9 (9) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.41 | 47.8% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (8) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.41 | 42.8% | 1.10 | Renewal Possible |
| 11 (10) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.41 | 41.6% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 12 (11) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 13 (12) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.45 | 0.41 | 10.8% | 1.10 | Renewal Likely |
| 14 (13) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.41 | 0.41 | 2.0% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 14 (14) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.41 | 0.41 | 2.0% | 0.97 | Renewal Likely |
| 16 (15) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 17 (16) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.02 | -2.3% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 18 (18) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 0.95 | 1.02 | -7.2% | n/a | Final Season |
| 19 (17) | Shadowhunters (O) | Freeform | 0.18 | 0.20 | -12.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 20 (20) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.20 | -13.4% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 21 (21) | Final Space (O) | TBS | 0.26 | 0.30 | -14.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (19) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.86 | 1.02 | -16.0% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 23 (22) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.02 | -17.0% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 24 (23) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.90 | 1.13 | -20.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 25 (25) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.80 | 1.02 | -21.8% | 1.17 | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (24) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 27 (26) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 28 (27) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Cancelled |
| 29 (28) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 30 (29) | Gotham | FOX | 0.70 | 1.02 | -31.6% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 31 (30) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.24 | 0.41 | -40.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 32 (31) | Timeless (O) | NBC | 0.70 | 1.20 | -41.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 33 (32) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 34 (33) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 35 (36) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 36 (34) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.19 | -50.8% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 36 (35) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.19 | -50.8% | 0.97 | Cancellation Likely |
| 38 (37) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.56 | 1.19 | -52.9% | 1.33 | Renewal Possible |
| 39 (38) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -53.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 40 (39) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 41 (40) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 42 (41) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.02 | -59.0% | 0.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 43 (42) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.08 | 0.20 | -60.8% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 44 (43) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.46 | 1.19 | -61.3% | 1.07 | Cancelled |
| 45 (44) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
