FOX’s Gotham returned from its Winter hiatus this past week and dropped four notches on the Scorecard from Number 21 to Number 25. Its ratings are still at the same level as where it was in late Fall, but since the Scorecard is now comparing the broadcast net shows to network averages for the second half of the year, Gotham is comparatively lower than where it was. Also dropping is Starz’s Ash vs. Evil Dead which is now in the bottom five at the Number 37 slot. It is going directly against The Walking Dead this season, so I am assuming its network will be keeping a close eye on its delayed and digital viewing numbers. ABC’s Once Upon A Time returned at series low levels on Friday which has that one almost at the bottom of the Scorecard in the Number 39 slot. But the network has already announced that it will end after this season. Legends of Tomorrow and iZombie both dropped two slots as their Monday numbers remain low. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can see the full rankings below.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 4th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.68 | 0.50 | 636.2% | 5.92 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.78 | 0.44 | 77.4% | 1.64 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 50.7% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 6 (7) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.11 | 44.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (6) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.63 | 0.44 | 44.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.44 | 36.5% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.44 | 30.8% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (10) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.44 | 13.7% | 1.13 | Renewal Likely |
| 12 (14) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 1.15 | 1.11 | 3.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (13) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 14 (12) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.43 | 0.44 | -3.3% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 15 (15) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.44 | -4.5% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 16 (16) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.11 | -9.9% | n/a | Final Season |
| 17 (18) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.11 | -9.9% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 18 (17) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.21 | -14.2% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.92 | 1.17 | -21.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 20 (20) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 21 (24) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.11 | -23.4% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 22 (22) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.82 | 1.11 | -26.4% | 1.45 | Renewal Possible |
| 24 (25) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Renewal Possible |
| 25 (21) | Gotham | FOX | 0.80 | 1.11 | -27.9% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (26) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 27 (25) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.25 | 0.44 | -43.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 28 (27) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.60 | 1.12 | -46.3% | 1.27 | Renewal Possible |
| 29 (28) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -47.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 30 (29) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.12 | -47.6% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 31 (30) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 32 (33) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.57 | 1.12 | -49.3% | 1.00 | Cancellation Likely |
| 33 (31) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 34 (34) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.10 | 0.20 | -51.4% | n/a | Renewed |
| 35 (36) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.2% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 36 (37) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 37 (32) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -57.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 38 (38) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.11 | -62.2% | 0.60 | On the Bubble |
| 39 (35) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.40 | 1.12 | -64.2% | 1.09 | Cancelled |
| 40 (39) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
