Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Gotham and Ash vs. Evil Dead Drop in the Rankings

By | March 7, 2018

FOX’s Gotham returned from its Winter hiatus this past week and dropped four notches on the Scorecard from Number 21 to Number 25. Its ratings are still at the same level as where it was in late Fall, but since the Scorecard is now comparing the broadcast net shows to network averages for the second half of the year, Gotham is comparatively lower than where it was. Also dropping is Starz’s Ash vs. Evil Dead which is now in the bottom five at the Number 37 slot. It is going directly against The Walking Dead this season, so I am assuming its network will be keeping a close eye on its delayed and digital viewing numbers. ABC’s Once Upon A Time returned at series low levels on Friday which has that one almost at the bottom of the Scorecard in the Number 39 slot. But the network has already announced that it will end after this season. Legends of Tomorrow and iZombie both dropped two slots as their Monday numbers remain low. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can see the full rankings below.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 4th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.68 0.50 636.2% 5.92 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.78 0.44 77.4% 1.64 Renewal Likely
4 (4) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 59.6% 0.60 Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.26 0.17 50.7% 0.60 Renewal Likely
6 (7) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.60 1.11 44.1% n/a Renewal Possible
7 (6) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.63 0.44 44.1% n/a Renewal Possible
8 (8) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.44 36.5% 0.98 Renewal Likely
9 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.58 0.44 30.8% 1.01 Renewal Likely
10 (10) Happy (O) Syfy 0.21 0.17 24.3% 0.55 Renewed
11 (11) Riverdale (O) CW 0.50 0.44 13.7% 1.13 Renewal Likely
12 (14) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.15 1.11 3.6% n/a Renewal Possible
13 (13) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 0.5% 0.37 Renewed
14 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.43 0.44 -3.3% 1.03 Renewal Likely
15 (15) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.44 -4.5% 1.01 Renewal Likely
16 (16) The X-Files (O) FOX 1.00 1.11 -9.9% n/a Final Season
17 (18) The Orville (O) FOX 1.00 1.11 -9.9% 2.15 Renewed
18 (17) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.04 1.21 -14.2% 1.95 Renewed
19 (19) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.92 1.17 -21.0% n/a Renewal Possible
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewed
21 (24) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.85 1.11 -23.4% 2.08 Renewed
22 (22) Van Helsing Syfy 0.13 0.17 -25.8% 0.30 Renewed
23 (23) Lucifer FOX 0.82 1.11 -26.4% 1.45 Renewal Possible
24 (25) The Librarians TNT 0.29 0.40 -27.5% 0.60 Renewal Possible
25 (21) Gotham FOX 0.80 1.11 -27.9% 1.54 Renewal Possible
26 (26) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -28.0% 0.44 Renewed
27 (25) iZombie (O) CW 0.25 0.44 -43.1% n/a Renewed
28 (27) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.60 1.12 -46.3% 1.27 Renewal Possible
29 (28) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -47.1% n/a Renewed
30 (29) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.12 -47.6% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
31 (30) Superstition Syfy 0.09 0.17 -48.5% n/a Cancellation Likely
32 (33) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.57 1.12 -49.3% 1.00 Cancellation Likely
33 (31) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -49.8% n/a Cancellation Likely
34 (34) Counterpart Starz 0.10 0.20 -51.4% n/a Renewed
35 (36) Beyond Freeform 0.09 0.20 -54.2% n/a On the Bubble
36 (37) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancelled
37 (32) Ash vs Evil Dead Starz 0.09 0.20 -57.5% n/a Renewal Possible
38 (38) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.42 1.11 -62.2% 0.60 On the Bubble
39 (35) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.40 1.12 -64.2% 1.09 Cancelled
40 (39) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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