Starz’s Ash vs. Evil Dead returned for its third season on Sunday posting lower ratings than it saw last year causing it to enter the Scorecard on the lower side in the Number 32 slot. That one does air directly against The Walking Dead this season and also had to contend with coverage of the Olympics closing ceremony on Sunday, so the lower ratings should not come as a huge surprise. ABC’s Kevin (Probably) Saves the World dropped four slots (from Number 29 to Number 33) as that show continues to struggle and seems certainly headed toward cancellation. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was incidental and you can see the full rankings below.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 25th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.77 | 0.50 | 654.4% | 5.92 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.80 | 0.45 | 79.2% | 1.64 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 54.6% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 6 (6) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.66 | 0.45 | 47.8% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (7) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.15 | 38.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.45 | 34.4% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.45 | 28.8% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (10) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 11 (12) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.45 | 12.0% | 1.13 | Renewal Likely |
| 12 (11) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.8% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (13) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 14 (14) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 1.15 | 1.15 | -0.4% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.43 | 0.45 | -4.8% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 16 (16) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 1.03 | 1.15 | -10.5% | n/a | Final Season |
| 17 (17) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.17 | -11.2% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 18 (18) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.15 | -13.4% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.95 | 1.17 | -18.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 20 (20) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 21 (21) | Gotham | FOX | 0.89 | 1.15 | -22.8% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (22) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.85 | 1.15 | -26.4% | 1.45 | Renewal Possible |
| 24 (24) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.15 | -26.4% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 25 (25) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Renewal Possible |
| 26 (26) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 27 (27) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.62 | 1.12 | -44.7% | 1.27 | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (28) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -45.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 29 (31) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.12 | -47.8% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 30 (30) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 31 (32) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 32 (n/a) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.10 | 0.20 | -50.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 33 (29) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.56 | 1.12 | -50.1% | 1.00 | Cancellation Likely |
| 34 (33) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.10 | 0.20 | -50.8% | n/a | Renewed |
| 35 (34) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.54 | 1.12 | -51.4% | 1.09 | Cancelled |
| 36 (36) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.0% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 37 (35) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 38 (37) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.15 | -63.6% | 0.60 | On the Bubble |
| 39 (38) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
