Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Arrow Continues to Drop

By | February 6, 2018

The CW’s Arrow continues to slide in the Scorecard as that show dropped another two slots this week after slipping last week with the first Mid-Season scorecard.  It has been performing at series low levels of late, but it is in little danger of getting cancelled because it airs on the fifth place network.  It’s not impossible that next season could be its last as a stand-alone show, though, possibly getting absorbed into Legends of Tomorrow or another team up series afterwards (more on that in a coming post).  Apart from that, there was very little movement of note in this week’s rankings.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 4th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.79 0.50 657.8% 5.92 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.80 0.45 79.1% 1.64 Renewal Likely
4 (4) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.73 0.45 64.2% n/a Renewal Possible
5 (6) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.27 0.17 60.3% 0.60 Renewal Likely
6 (5) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 59.6% 0.60 Renewed
7 (8) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.60 1.16 38.3% n/a Renewal Possible
8 (7) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.45 34.3% 0.98 Renewal Likely
9 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.57 0.45 26.9% 1.01 Renewal Likely
10 (10) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.56 0.45 24.4% 1.03 Renewal Likely
11 (11) Happy (O) Syfy 0.21 0.17 24.3% 0.55 Renewed
12 (12) Riverdale (O) CW 0.50 0.45 11.9% 1.13 Renewal Likely
13 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 0.5% 0.37 Renewed
14 (15) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.15 1.16 -0.6% n/a Renewal Possible
15 (13) Arrow (O) CW 0.43 0.45 -3.0% 1.01 Renewal Likely
16 (17) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.04 1.13 -7.9% 1.95 Renewed
17 (16) The X-Files (O) FOX 1.06 1.16 -8.4% n/a Final Season
18 (18) The Orville (O) FOX 1.00 1.16 -13.5% 2.15 Renewed
19 (19) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
20 (20) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.95 1.18 -19.7% n/a Renewal Possible
21 (21) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewed
22 (22) Gotham FOX 0.89 1.16 -23.0% 1.54 Renewal Possible
23 (23) Van Helsing Syfy 0.13 0.17 -25.8% 0.30 Renewed
24 (24) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.85 1.16 -26.5% 2.08 Renewed
25 (26) The Librarians TNT 0.29 0.40 -26.9% 0.60 Renewal Possible
26 (25) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -28.0% 0.44 Renewed
27 (27) Lucifer FOX 0.80 1.16 -30.8% 1.45 Renewal Possible
28 (28) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.63 1.16 -45.4% 1.00 Cancellation Likely
29 (29) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.62 1.16 -46.5% 1.27 Renewal Possible
30 (30) Superstition Syfy 0.09 0.17 -48.5% n/a Cancellation Likely
31 (31) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.16 -49.5% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
32 (32) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -49.8% n/a Cancellation Likely
33 (34) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.54 1.16 -53.0% 1.09 Renewal Possible
34 (33) Counterpart Starz 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
35 (35) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancelled
36 (36) Beyond Freeform 0.08 0.20 -58.3% n/a On the Bubble
37 (37) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.42 1.16 -63.7% 0.60 On the Bubble
38 (38) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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