Cancellation Watch: Final Fall Scorecard

By | December 27, 2017

The Fall season is pretty much in the books now with no more ratings results to tally for the year except tonight’s airings of The Librarians on TNT and Happy! on Syfy.  I’m going to go ahead and count this as the final Scorecard for the Fall and I will resume tracking the rankings during the third week of January.  In the current rankings, Happy! dropped one slot from the prior week while Van Helsing and Ghost Wars both improved one slot.  The rest of the movement was incidental based on the shifts from those three.  The standings for the shows fall out pretty much as expected at this point based on the rankings, with those entries in the bottom third either cancelled, likely to be cancelled, or on the bubble.  All of those above that are at least at Renewal Possible status with quite a number already being renewed or very likely to be.  Be sure to check back in January to see how the ratings progress at mid-season and whether the ratings slump we saw at the end of Fall continues into the second half of the television year.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through December 24th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.79 0.50 657.8% 5.92 Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.91 0.47 93.5% 1.64 Renewal Likely
4 (5) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 59.6% 0.60 Renewed
5 (4) Happy (O) Syfy 0.25 0.17 45.1% 0.70 Renewal Possible
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.61 0.47 29.8% 0.98 Renewal Possible
7 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.57 0.47 20.3% 1.13 Renewal Possible
8 (8) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.56 0.47 18.0% 1.03 Renewal Possible
9 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.54 0.47 15.6% 1.01 Renewal Likely
10 (10) Arrow (O) CW 0.52 0.47 10.9% 1.01 Renewal Possible
11 (11) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.13 1.03 9.2% n/a Renewal Possible
12 (12) The Gifted (O) FOX 1.04 1.03 1.0% 2.08 Renewal Possible
13 (13) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 0.5% 0.37 Renewed
14 (14) The Orville (O) FOX 1.00 1.03 -2.9% 2.15 Renewed
15 (15) Lucifer FOX 0.92 1.03 -10.7% 1.45 Renewal Possible
16 (16) Gotham FOX 0.89 1.03 -13.5% 1.54 Renewal Possible
17 (17) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.19 1.44 -17.5% 1.98 Renewed
18 (18) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
19 (19) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.84 1.03 -18.7% n/a Renewal Possible
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewal Possible
21 (21) The Librarians TNT 0.29 0.40 -27.5% n/a Renewal Possible
22 (22) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -28.0% 0.44 Renewed
23 (24) Van Helsing Syfy 0.12 0.17 -28.3% 0.30 Renewed
24 (23) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.83 1.17 -29.0% n/a Renewal Possible
25 (25) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.72 1.08 -33.1% 1.00 Cancellation Likely
26 (26) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.08 -45.8% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
27 (27) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.58 1.08 -46.8% 1.25 On the Bubble
28 (28) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.54 1.08 -49.6% 1.09 On the Bubble
29 (30) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.08 0.17 -51.3% n/a Cancellation Likely
30 (29) Superstition Syfy 0.08 0.17 -52.9% n/a Cancellation Likely
31 (31) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancellation Likely
32 (32) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.42 1.03 -59.2% 0.60 On the Bubble
33 (33) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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