Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Agents of SHIELD Enters Low in the Rankings

By | December 5, 2017

ABC’s Agents of SHIELD had its late Fall start this past Friday, and its ratings are predictably low, though not disastrous (more on that at this link).  It starts on the lower side of the Scorecard in the Number 24 slot, and I expect it to slip closer to where Once Upon A Time is within the next week or so.  Slipping this week due to low ratings are Syfy’s Ghost Wars and Superstition as well as FOX’s Ghosted (it was a bad week for ghosts). Arrow rebounded some from its Thanksgiving week drop as expected. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through December 3rd (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.85 0.50 670.0% 6.40 Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.93 0.48 91.3% 1.68 Renewal Likely
4 (4) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 60.4% 0.60 Renewed
5 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.61 0.48 26.7% 1.10 Renewal Possible
6 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.59 0.48 21.1% 1.18 Renewal Possible
7 (8) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.55 0.48 13.7% 0.92 Renewal Possible
7 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.55 0.48 13.7% 0.94 Renewal Likely
9 (11) Arrow (O) CW 0.54 0.48 11.2% 0.96 Renewal Possible
10 (7) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.13 1.04 8.7% n/a Renewal Possible
11 (10) The Gifted (O) FOX 1.10 1.04 6.3% 2.22 Renewal Possible
12 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 1.8% 0.37 Renewal Likely
13 (13) The Orville (O) FOX 1.01 1.04 -2.3% 2.26 Renewed
14 (14) Gotham FOX 0.90 1.04 -13.0% 1.58 Renewal Possible
15 (15) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.19 1.45 -18.3% 1.98 Renewed
16 (16) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
17 (17) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.84 1.04 -19.1% n/a Renewal Possible
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 0.84 1.04 -19.2% 1.50 Renewal Possible
19 (19) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewal Possible
20 (20) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -26.3% 0.48 Renewal Possible
21 (21) Van Helsing Syfy 0.12 0.17 -29.4% n/a On the Bubble
22 (22) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.82 1.17 -29.5% n/a On the Bubble
23 (23) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.76 1.11 -31.6% n/a Cancellation Likely
24 (n/a) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.70 1.11 -36.7% n/a Renewed
25 (24) Superstition Syfy 0.09 0.17 -46.1% n/a Cancellation Likely
26 (26) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.11 -47.1% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
27 (25) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -49.3% n/a Cancellation Likely
28 (28) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.56 1.11 -49.7% 1.13 On the Bubble
29 (29) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancellation Likely
30 (30) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.43 1.04 -58.9% 0.70 On the Bubble
31 (31) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Renewal Possible

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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