Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Gifted Slips But Not Far

By | November 21, 2017

FOX’s X-Men tie-in series The Gifted slipped two slots in the scorecard this week as its numbers remain on the low side.  But I don’t see much cause for concern at this point and I believe that show is on track for renewal.  That network’s Ghosted also slipped, but I believe that was due to Thanksgiving week doldrums and it should rebound next week.  Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental which is what I would expect at this point in the season.  The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.




Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 19th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 4.02 0.50 704.0% 6.60 Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.53 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.93 0.46 102.2% 1.77 Renewal Likely
4 (4) Outlander Starz 0.33 0.20 65.0% n/a Renewed
5 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.67 0.46 44.4% 1.10 Renewal Possible
6 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.60 0.46 30.0% 1.27 Renewal Possible
7 (8) Arrow (O) CW 0.52 0.46 11.9% 1.00 Renewal Possible
8 (7) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.14 1.05 8.7% n/a Renewal Possible
9 (10) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.50 0.46 8.3% 0.93 Renewal Possible
9 (11) Supergirl (O) CW 0.50 0.46 8.3% 0.93 Renewal Likely
11 (9) The Gifted (O) FOX 1.13 1.05 7.3% 2.35 Renewal Possible
12 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.18 0.17 2.9% 0.37 Renewal Likely
13 (13) The Orville (O) FOX 1.03 1.05 -2.5% 2.34 Renewed
14 (14) Lucifer FOX 0.94 1.05 -10.4% 1.50 Renewal Possible
15 (15) Gotham FOX 0.91 1.05 -13.4% 1.57 Renewal Possible
16 (16) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.19 1.44 -17.7% 1.98 Renewal Possible
17 (18) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
18 (17) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.84 1.05 -19.9% n/a Renewal Possible
19 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -20.8% n/a Renewal Possible
20 (19) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.24 0.30 -21.7% 0.50 Renewal Possible
21 (21) Van Helsing Syfy 0.12 0.17 -27.7% n/a On the Bubble
22 (22) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.83 1.16 -29.1% n/a On the Bubble
23 (23) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.76 1.15 -34.4% n/a Cancellation Likely
24 (24) Superstition Syfy 0.10 0.17 -43.5% n/a Cancellation Likely
25 (25) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -47.1% n/a Cancellation Likely
26 (26) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.15 -49.3% 1.18 Cancellation Likely
27 (27) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.56 1.15 -51.8% 1.20 On the Bubble
28 (28) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -53.3% 0.30 Cancellation Likely
29 (29) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.44 1.05 -57.9% 0.70 On the Bubble
30 (30) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -77.8% n/a Renewal Possible

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *