Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Most Shows Remain Steady as Fall Winds Down

By | November 14, 2017

There was not much change on the scorecard this week beyond some incidental movement which is what is to be expected at this point in the season. That means that no shows are tanking or making surges at the moment. Agents of SHIELD will be joining the scorecard in a few weeks after it debuts on December 1st, and I expect that one to be in the lower rungs. Other than that, I expect most the shows to remain mostly stable until mid-season starts to shake some things up in January.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through November 12th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 4.15 0.50 730.0% 6.60 Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.11 0.50 122.6% 2.53 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.92 0.46 98.3% 1.77 Renewal Likely
4 (4) Outlander Starz 0.34 0.20 67.8% n/a Renewed
5 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.66 0.46 42.2% 1.10 Renewal Possible
6 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.62 0.46 33.6% 1.27 Renewal Possible
7 (8) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.20 1.06 12.7% n/a Renewal Possible
8 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.52 0.46 12.1% 1.00 Renewal Possible
9 (9) The Gifted (O) FOX 1.15 1.06 8.0% 2.35 Renewal Possible
10 (10) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.50 0.46 7.8% 0.93 Renewal Possible
10 (11) Supergirl (O) CW 0.50 0.46 7.8% 0.93 Renewal Likely
12 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.18 0.17 3.4% 0.37 Renewal Likely
13 (13) The Orville (O) FOX 1.04 1.06 -2.1% 2.34 Renewed
14 (14) Lucifer FOX 0.93 1.06 -12.3% 1.50 Renewal Possible
15 (15) Gotham FOX 0.91 1.06 -14.3% 1.57 Renewal Possible
16 (17) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.19 1.45 -18.3% 1.98 Renewal Possible
17 (18) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.87 1.06 -18.6% n/a Renewal Possible
18 (16) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
19 (19) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.23 0.30 -24.0% 0.50 Renewal Possible
20 (21) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -25.0% n/a Renewal Possible
21 (20) Van Helsing Syfy 0.12 0.17 -27.5% n/a On the Bubble
22 (23) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.81 1.18 -30.8% n/a On the Bubble
23 (22) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.77 1.11 -30.8% n/a On the Bubble
24 (24) Superstition Syfy 0.10 0.17 -42.6% n/a Cancellation Likely
25 (25) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.09 0.17 -46.1% n/a Cancellation Likely
26 (26) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.11 -47.1% 1.18 Cancellation Likely
27 (27) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.57 1.11 -48.8% 1.20 On the Bubble
28 (28) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -55.0% 0.30 Cancellation Likely
29 (29) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.45 1.06 -57.7% 0.70 On the Bubble
30 (30) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -77.3% n/a Renewal Possible

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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