Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Midnight Texas, Salvation, and Zoo Drop

By | August 29, 2017

With the ratings slip that NBC’s Midnight Texas saw last week (more on that in the Sci Fi TV Status Report section of last week’s This Week in Sci Fi TV post), that show dropped six slots on the Scorecard (from Number 31 to Number 37). Both CBS genre shows Salvation and Zoo performed poorly with the Nielsens last week and dropped four slots in the rankings (the former from Number 30 to 34, the latter from Number 38 to 42). Syfy’s Blood Drive also dropped in the ratings and it slipped three slots in the rankings (from Number 46 to Number 49). Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through August 27th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) Game of Thrones (O) HBO 4.76 0.60 693.6% n/a Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
5 (5) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 0.98 0.60 62.8% 1.83 Renewed
6 (6) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
7 (7) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
8 (8) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
9 (9) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.55 Renewed
10 (10) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
11 (11) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
12 (12) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
13 (13) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
14 (14) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
15 (15) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
16 (16) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
17 (17) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.80 Renewed
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.77 Renewed
19 (19) Shadowhunters Free 0.26 0.25 2.0% 0.43 Renewed
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
21 (21) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
22 (22) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
23 (23) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
24 (24) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
25 (25) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
26 (27) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
27 (28) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
28 (26) Killjoys Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% n/a Renewal Possible
29 (29) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
30 (32) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
31 (33) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
32 (34) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
33 (35) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
34 (30) Salvation CBS 0.54 0.70 -22.4% n/a On the Bubble
35 (36) People of Earth TBS 0.31 0.40 -23.0% n/a Renewal Possible
36 (37) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
37 (31) Midnight Texas ABC 0.76 1.00 -24.0% n/a Renewal Possible
38 (39) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
39 (40) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
40 (41) Teen Wolf MTV 0.23 0.30 -25.0% 0.44 Final Season
41 (42) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
42 (38) Zoo (O) CBS 0.52 0.70 -25.4% n/a Cancellation Likely
43 (44) Dark Matter Syfy 0.15 0.20 -25.8% 0.40 Renewal Possible
44 (43) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
45 (45) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
46 (48) The Mist Spike 0.14 0.20 -30.5% 0.50 On the Bubble
47 (49) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.9% 0.63 Final Season
48 (47) Preacher AMC 0.41 0.60 -31.0% 1.20 Renewal Possible
49 (46) Blood Drive Syfy 0.14 0.20 -31.4% n/a On the Bubble
50 (50) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
51 (51) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.63 Renewed
52 (54) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
53 (52) The Strain FX 0.37 0.60 -39.0% 0.85 Final Season
54 (55) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
55 (53) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -39.6% n/a Renewed
56 (56) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
57 (57) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
58 (58) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
59 (59) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
60 (60) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
61 (61) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
62 (62) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
63 (63) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
64 (64) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
65 (65) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
66 (66) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
67 (67) Somewhere Between ABC 0.36 0.90 -60.0% n/a Cancellation Likely
68 (68) Twin Peaks Show 0.10 0.25 -61.4% n/a Final Season
69 (69) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
70 (70) Orphan Black BBCA 0.08 0.40 -80.0% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *