Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Mist and Zoo Continue to Drop

By | August 8, 2017

The biggest drops on the scorecard this week were with Spike’s The Mist and CBS’ Zoo as both continue their rating’s declines.  The Mist slipped nine slots (from Number 37 to Number 46) while Zoo slipped ten (from Number 34 to Number 44).  The latter series looks certainly headed to cancellation while The Mist may still have a chance because it is leading the charge of scripted programming for Spike as it transitions to the Paramount network.  A few shows looked like they improved several slots like Dark Matter and Preacher, but that is mostly just incidental movement with The Mist and Zoo shifting beneath them.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through August 6th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) Game of Thrones (O) HBO 4.49 0.60 647.5% n/a Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
5 (5) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 0.98 0.60 62.8% 1.83 Renewed
6 (6) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
7 (7) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
8 (8) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
9 (9) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.55 Renewed
10 (10) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
11 (11) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
12 (12) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
13 (13) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
14 (14) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
15 (15) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
16 (16) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
17 (17) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.80 Renewed
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.77 Renewed
19 (19) Shadowhunters Free 0.26 0.25 2.9% 0.43 Renewed
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
21 (21) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
22 (22) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
23 (23) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
24 (24) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
25 (25) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
26 (26) Killjoys Syfy 0.17 0.20 -14.2% n/a Renewal Possible
27 (27) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
28 (28) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
29 (29) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
30 (30) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
31 (31) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
32 (32) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
32 (41) People of Earth TBS 0.32 0.40 -21.3% n/a Renewal Possible
34 (33) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
35 (35) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
36 (36) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
37 (38) Blood Drive Syfy 0.15 0.20 -24.4% n/a On the Bubble
38 (39) Teen Wolf MTV 0.23 0.30 -24.4% 0.44 Final Season
39 (40) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
40 (42) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
40 (43) Dark Matter Syfy 0.15 0.20 -25.0% 0.40 Renewal Possible
42 (44) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
43 (46) Preacher AMC 0.44 0.60 -26.0% 1.20 Renewal Possible
44 (34) Zoo (O) CBS 0.52 0.70 -26.2% n/a Cancellation Likely
45 (45) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
46 (37) The Mist Spike 0.15 0.20 -27.1% 0.50 On the Bubble
47 (47) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.9% 0.63 Final Season
48 (48) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
49 (50) The Strain FX 0.40 0.60 -34.2% 0.85 Final Season
50 (49) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.63 Renewed
51 (53) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -37.8% n/a Renewed
52 (51) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
53 (52) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
54 (54) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
55 (55) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
56 (56) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
57 (57) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
58 (58) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
59 (59) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
60 (60) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
61 (61) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
62 (62) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
63 (63) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
64 (64) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
65 (65) Twin Peaks Show 0.10 0.25 -60.4% n/a Final Season
66 (66) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
67 (67) Orphan Black BBCA 0.07 0.40 -81.4% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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