Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Zoo, Dark Matter, The Strain Drop

By | July 25, 2017

A few shows dropped in the Scorecard this week due to sinking ratings (you can see the rundown of the ratings results here). Zoo slipped three slots from Number 32 to Number 35, though that was partially a correction from last week’s jump. Blood Drive slipped three slots from Number 30 to Number 33. Dark Matter slipped five slots from Number 40 to Number 45. The Strain dropped the furthest, from Number 26 to Number 48, as its numbers slipped from last week’s season premiere. Most of the rest of the shows remained mostly stable for the week.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through July 23rd (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) Game of Thrones (O) HBO 4.52 0.60 653.3% n/a Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
5 (5) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 0.98 0.60 62.8% 1.83 Renewed
6 (6) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
7 (7) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
8 (8) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
9 (9) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.55 Renewed
10 (10) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
11 (11) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
12 (12) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
13 (13) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
14 (14) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
15 (15) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
16 (16) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
17 (17) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.80 Renewed
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.77 Renewed
19 (19) Shadowhunters Free 0.26 0.25 3.8% 0.43 Renewed
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
21 (21) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
22 (22) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
23 (23) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
24 (24) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
25 (25) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
26 (27) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
27 (28) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
28 (29) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
29 (31) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
30 (34) Killjoys Syfy 0.16 0.20 -18.8% n/a Renewal Possible
31 (33) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
32 (35) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
33 (30) Blood Drive Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% n/a Renewal Possible
34 (36) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
35 (32) Zoo (O) Syfy 0.55 0.70 -21.4% n/a Cancellation Likely
36 (37) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
37 (38) The Mist Spike 0.16 0.20 -22.0% 0.50 On the Bubble
38 (39) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
39 (41) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
40 (42) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
41 (43) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
42 (44) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
43 (46) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
44 (47) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
45 (40) Dark Matter Syfy 0.15 0.20 -26.4% 0.40 Renewal Possible
46 (45) Preacher AMC 0.44 0.60 -26.7% 1.20 Renewal Possible
47 (48) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.9% 0.63 Renewed
48 (26) The Strain FX 0.41 0.60 -31.7% 0.85 Final Season
49 (49) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
50 (50) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.63 Renewed
51 (51) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
52 (53) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
53 (52) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -40.7% n/a On the Bubble
54 (54) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
55 (55) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
56 (56) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
57 (57) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
58 (58) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
59 (59) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
60 (60) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
61 (61) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
62 (62) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
63 (63) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
64 (64) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
65 (65) Twin Peaks Show 0.11 0.25 -57.8% n/a Final Season
66 (66) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
67 (67) Orphan Black BBCA 0.07 0.40 -82.5% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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