Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Mist and Preacher Have Okay Starts

By | June 27, 2017

Spike’s new series The Mist debuted with a 0.19 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic, which seems a bit light considering the level of promotion the show received.  Since I don’t have good comparative ratings data for that network, I am wagging out a benchmark of 0.20 for the cabler. That puts The Mist as slightly under-performing which feels about right at this point. But that is really just best guess, so take that and the Number 22 slot that show enters the Scorecard at with a grain of rock salt.

AMC’s Preacher returned on Sunday with a 0.58 rating based on the demo which was down from its first season average but still decent for a cable show these days.  That show starts at Number 20 in the Scorecard, though expect it to slip with it moving to Mondays and losing its lead-in from Fear the Walking Dead.  Syfy’s Blood Drive slipped a bit in the rankings (from Number 15 to Number 18) due to its ratings drop, but its still looks okay for now.  Most of the rest of the movement on the Scorecard for the week was incidental

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through June 25th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
4 (4) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.03 0.60 70.8% 2.00 Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
8 (8) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.55 Renewed
9 (9) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
10 (10) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
11 (11) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
12 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
13 (13) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
14 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
15 (16) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
16 (17) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.81 Renewed
17 (18) Shadowhunters Free 0.27 0.25 7.4% 0.50 Renewed
18 (15) Blood Drive Syfy 0.21 0.20 5.0% n/a Renewal Possible
19 (19) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.77 Renewed
20 (n/a) Preacher AMC 0.58 0.60 -3.3% n/a Renewal Possible
21 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
22 (n/a) The Mist Spike 0.19 0.20 -5.0% n/a Renewal Possible
23 (21) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
24 (22) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
25 (23) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
26 (24) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
27 (25) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
28 (26) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
29 (27) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
30 (28) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
31 (29) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
32 (30) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
32 (31) Dark Matter Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% n/a Renewal Possible
34 (32) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
35 (33) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
36 (34) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
37 (35) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
38 (36) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
39 (37) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
40 (38) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
41 (39) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
42 (40) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
43 (41) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
44 (43) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
45 (42) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.9% 0.62 Renewed
46 (44) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
47 (45) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.65 Renewed
48 (46) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
49 (47) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
50 (48) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
51 (50) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -41.7% n/a On the Bubble
52 (49) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
53 (51) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
54 (52) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
55 (53) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
56 (54) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
57 (55) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
58 (56) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
59 (57) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
60 (58) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
61 (59) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
62 (60) Twin Peaks Show 0.10 0.25 -60.7% n/a Final Season
63 (61) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
64 (62) Orphan Black BBCA 0.06 0.40 -85.0% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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