Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Wynonna Earp Starts Off Near the Bottom

By | June 13, 2017
Wynonna Earp and Dark Matter both returned low in the ratings on Friday (more on that at this link), and they also start low on the Scorecard, with the former coming in near the bottom at Number 57 and the latter in the lower half at Number 36. I am starting Dark Matter at Renewal Possible status because its numbers are not too far off from last season and because it has made it to the third season threshold. Wynonna Earp starts off On the Bubble and really needs a rally from fans on the social nets.
Orphan Black enters at the bottom of the Scorecard, though that is not a surprise seeing as it is in its finale season. Fear the Walking Dead did not slip from last week despite its ratings drop. The rest of the shows remained mostly stable on the Scorecard apart from some incidental movement.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through June 11th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
4 (4) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.10 0.60 83.3% n/a Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
7 (8) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
8 (7) American Gods STARZ 0.27 0.20 37.1% 0.60 Renewed
9 (9) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
10 (10) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
11 (11) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
12 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
13 (13) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
14 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
15 (15) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
16 (16) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.81 Renewed
17 (17) Shadowhunters Free 0.28 0.25 10.5% 0.50 Renewal Likely
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.78 Renewed
19 (19) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
20 (20) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
21 (21) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
22 (22) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
23 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
24 (24) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
25 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
26 (26) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
27 (27) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
28 (28) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
29 (29) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
30 (30) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
31 (31) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
32 (32) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
33 (33) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
34 (34) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
35 (35) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
36 (n/a) Dark Matter Syfy 0.15 0.20 -25.0% n/a Renewed
36 (36) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
38 (37) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
39 (38) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
40 (39) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
41 (43) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.3% 0.61 Renewed
42 (40) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
43 (42) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
44 (41) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.66 Renewed
45 (44) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
46 (45) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
47 (46) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
48 (51) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
49 (47) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
50 (48) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
51 (49) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
52 (50) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
53 (52) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
54 (53) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
55 (54) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
56 (55) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
57 (n/a) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.09 0.20 -55.0% n/a Renewed
58 (56) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
59 (57) Twin Peaks Show 0.09 0.25 -63.0% n/a Final Season
60 (58) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
61 (n/a) Orphan Black BBCA 0.07 0.40 -82.5% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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