Cancellation Watch: What Are Sleepy Hollow’s Chances of Getting a 5th Season? Plus the Scorecard

By | April 25, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Renewal Chances: As we head into the May Upfronts for the broadcast networks I will be looking at some of this season’s marginal series and considering their chances for renewal.  FOX’s Sleepy Hollow wrapped up its fourth season at the end of March, and its linear ratings–which were already sliding in its third year–were down 38%. Of course, the network claimed last year that the overnights were not that important for this show because it had been seeing decent delayed viewing gains and it had a very strong international audience. That will be tested this season, though, as the show only had a 0.5 rating season average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and that only improved to a 0.9 score once Live+7 viewing was factored in. The show is also well short of the preferred 88 episode count that the domestic syndication market prefers to see. Sleepy Hollow has 62 episodes through its fourth season, and would only get to 75-78 if it were to get its typical 13-18 episode renewal for a fifth season. But the streaming market does like a show that wraps up its storylines, and the fourth season finale still left several big issues for this one to resolve.

Considering FOX’s claims of the international support the show has and also that it is already profitable to them, there is still a chance that Sleepy Hollow could get one final season to tidy up its story arcs. Its ratings definitely have to be an eyesore for the network, but if it will play better to binge-watching and international syndication by wrapping up its story, the network may decide to keep it around a bit longer to plug up an hour on low-viewership Fridays. I am keeping this one On the Bubble, but consider it to be leaning more heavily toward Cancellation Likely status. If it does get that final season nod, though, I would not be too surprised. If there are any fans left out there–and I have not heard much noise from them since that tragic third season finale–they definitely need to make a Call to Action right now. A strong show of support could be the deciding factor and shift the network executives toward a renewal nod.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, AMC’s Into the Badlands slipped to a 0.48 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 1.3 million total viewers.  That show is doing well with delayed viewing (more important to the cable channels than the broadcast nets), so I believe it is still okay at the moment.  Over on FOX, neither Making History nor The Last Man on Earth received much help from scheduling as the former did not have its usual lead-in from The Simpsons and the latter had only a repeat of Family Guy as its lead-in.  The ratings for the two were a 0.6 score with 1.3 million total viewers and a 0.8 score with 1.7 million total viewers respectively.  On Saturday, Samurai Jack had a 0.68 rating with 1.3 million total viewers for Adult Swim and you have to wonder if they would like to have another season or two of that one (its current revival season has been designated as its last).  On BBC America, Doctor Who spin-off Class slipped to a 0.08 rating with 310K total viewers, but that one’s survival is more heavily dependent on how it performs over in Britain.  Be sure to keep up with the ratings results on a regular basis at our Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Scorecard: Not much movement in the Scorecard this week which is what I would expect at this point in the season.  iZombie did slip down a few more slots, but I believe it will hold about where it is for the rest of the season.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through April 23rd (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.07 0.51 109.7% 1.89 Renewed
4 (4) Into the Badlands AMC 0.98 0.60 62.5% 1.70 Renewal Possible
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.73 Renewed
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.78 0.51 51.9% 1.37 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
8 (8) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
9 (10) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 1.00 27.3% n/a Renewal Possible
10 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.65 0.51 27.1% 1.16 Renewed
11 (11) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.51 25.4% 1.13 Renewed
12 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
13 (13) Supernatural (O) CW 0.61 0.51 19.5% 1.11 Renewed
14 (14) Gotham FOX 1.14 1.00 13.2% 1.88 Renewal Likely
15 (15) Shadowhunters Free 0.28 0.25 11.2% 0.50 Renewal Likely
16 (16) Lucifer FOX 1.08 1.00 8.1% 1.85 Renewed
17 (17) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
18 (18) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
19 (19) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
20 (20) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.93 1.00 -6.9% 1.48 Renewal Possible
21 (21) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.40 -10.6% 1.91 Renewed
22 (22) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
23 (23) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
24 (24) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.29 -16.9% 1.74 Renewed
25 (25) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -17.5% n/a Renewal Possible
26 (26) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
27 (27) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
28 (29) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.40 -20.4% 2.07 Cancellation Likely
29 (28) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
30 (30) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
31 (31) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
32 (32) The 100 (O) CW 0.36 0.46 -21.7% 0.67 Renewed
33 (34) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.94 1.23 -23.5% 1.58 On the Bubble
34 (33) Making History (O) NBC 0.70 0.92 -23.9% n/a Cancellation Likely
35 (36) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
36 (37) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
37 (38) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.34 0.46 -26.5% 0.65 Renewal Possible
38 (39) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.51 -26.7% 0.75 Ended
39 (35) iZombie (O) CW 0.33 0.46 -28.0% 0.70 Renewal Possible
40 (40) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
41 (41) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.00 -33.2% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
42 (42) The Leftovers HBO 0.37 0.60 -39.2% n/a Final Season
43 (43) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.00 -39.2% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
44 (44) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.23 -39.7% 1.61 Cancellation Likely
45 (45) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
46 (46) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.40 -42.8% 1.43 Ended
47 (47) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.25 -44.1% n/a Cancellation Likely
48 (48) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.92 -44.8% 0.94 On the Bubble
49 (49) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.25 -45.0% 1.23 Cancellation Likely
50 (50) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.51 -45.8% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
51 (51) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
52 (52) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
53 (53) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.22 -57.1% 0.70 Cancelled
54 (54) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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