Cancellation Watch: Star Wars Rebels to End With its Fourth Season, Plus the Scorecard

By | April 18, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Series Ending: The trailer for the fourth season of Star Wars: Rebels debuted last week at the Star Wars Celebration, but coming with that was the announcement that the show is heading into its final year.  That news does not come as a huge surprise, though, because there have been rumors for a while that Rebels would be ending to make way for a new animated Star Wars series (not much information is available on that one yet).  Some fans worried that Rebels would end after its third season, but I figured that it would at least get the fourth year nod and had previously predicted that might be its last.  The fourth season will debut in September, and I have not seen a confirmation on the episode count, though expect at least thirteen.  You can see the Season 4 trailer at this link.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, HBO’s The Leftovers returned for its third and final season with a 0.39 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.  That’s a little better than the 0.33 season average it had in its second year.  AMC’s Into the Badlands slipped to a 0.52 rating with 1.3 million total viewers.  It did have competition from the basketball playoffs, but it needs to avoid sinking much further. On Saturday, Doctor Who returned at a 0.31 rating with 920K total viewers and Class debuted at a 0.19 rating with 535K total viewers, but both of those shows rely more heavily on their viewing numbers in Britain for survival. On Friday, MacGyver slipped to a 0.8 rating with 6.6 million total viewers for its season finale which had it at a low as far as its results in the demo.  It has been renewed for a second season, but CBS might want to give it a better timeslot next year if they want that audience attrition to stop.

Scorecard: As expected, iZombie slipped in the Scorecard (from Number 24 to Number 35) after its numbers dropped for its second Season 3 episode.  I still think that one is okay and has a decent chance of getting the fourth year nod, but a Call to Action from its fans could give it a boost.  NBC’s Powerless slipped a few more slots as that one looks certain to be one-season-and-done at this point.  HBO’s The Leftovers entered pretty low in the Scorecard (Number 42) as expected seeing as that show is in its final season.  I will not be including Doctor Who and Class in the Scorecard because there survival is more heavily tied to their performance across the Atlantic.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through April 16th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.07 0.51 109.2% 1.89 Renewed
4 (4) Into the Badlands AMC 1.07 0.60 79.0% 2.00 Renewal Possible
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 56.3% 0.74 Renewal Likely
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.78 0.51 51.5% 1.37 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewal Likely
8 (8) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
9 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.65 0.51 26.8% 1.16 Renewed
10 (10) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 1.01 26.5% n/a Renewal Possible
11 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.51 25.1% 1.13 Renewed
12 (11) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
13 (13) Supernatural (O) CW 0.61 0.51 19.3% 1.13 Renewed
14 (14) Gotham FOX 1.14 1.01 12.5% 1.88 Renewal Likely
15 (15) Shadowhunters Free 0.28 0.25 11.2% 0.50 Renewal Likely
16 (16) Lucifer FOX 1.08 1.01 7.4% 1.85 Renewed
17 (17) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
18 (18) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
19 (19) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
20 (20) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.94 1.01 -6.6% 1.48 Renewal Possible
21 (21) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.41 -11.4% 1.91 Renewed
22 (22) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
23 (23) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.5% 0.38 Renewed
24 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.30 -17.5% 1.74 Renewed
25 (40) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -17.5% n/a Renewal Possible
26 (26) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
27 (27) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
28 (28) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
29 (31) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.41 -21.1% 2.07 Cancellation Likely
30 (29) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
31 (30) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
32 (33) The 100 (O) CW 0.36 0.46 -21.9% 0.67 Renewed
33 (34) Making History (O) NBC 0.72 0.93 -22.2% n/a Cancellation Likely
34 (32) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.95 1.25 -23.5% 1.63 On the Bubble
35 (24) iZombie (O) CW 0.35 0.46 -24.6% n/a Renewal Possible
36 (35) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
37 (36) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
38 (37) The Originals (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -26.8% 0.63 Renewal Possible
39 (38) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.51 -26.8% 0.75 Ended
40 (39) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
41 (41) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.01 -33.6% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
42 (45) The Leftovers HBO 0.39 0.60 -35.0% n/a Final Season
43 (42) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.01 -39.6% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
44 (43) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.25 -40.5% 1.61 Cancellation Likely
45 (45) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
46 (46) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.41 -43.3% 1.43 Ended
47 (44) Powerless (O) NBC 0.71 1.26 -43.6% n/a Cancellation Likely
48 (47) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.93 -45.2% 0.94 On the Bubble
49 (48) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.26 -45.4% 1.23 Cancellation Likely
50 (49) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.51 -46.0% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
51 (50) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
52 (51) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
53 (52) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.24 -57.8% 0.70 Cancelled
54 (53) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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