Cancellation Watch: Humans Renewed for Third Season, Time After Time Remains Low, Plus the Scorecard

By | March 28, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Renewal Announcement: Word broke early this morning that the AI series Humans will be returning for a third season.  That show airs on AMC in the U.S. where it had mediocre ratings in its first season which dropped even lower during its second year run that just wrapped up.  But the series comes in a partnership with the British Channel 4 and the viewership is much higher over in the UK.  This is one of those shows that benefits from its international partnership and does not have to have high ratings in the States to survive.  Humans has been well received by the sci fi community and I would expect it to stick around through at least fourth or fifth season because is what we have typically been seeing from these modestly rated cable entries that last into a third year.  And it could last beyond a fifth season if its numbers remain good across the Atlantic, though British shows tend to not stretch out a premise too long like we often see in the U.S.  The third season of Humans will have eight episodes like the first two and will air at some point in 2018 (fans are likely hoping that it will not be another year and a half wait between seasons, though).

Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, ABC’s Time After Time remained extremely low at a 0.4 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 1.9 million total viewers.  It looks like that show may only have produced eight episodes total, so perhaps ABC just plans on airing out the next three and calling it quits for this one.  The other Sunday broadcast net entries–Once Upon A Time, Making History, and The Last Man on Earth–all either ticked up for the week or held steady, but the numbers are still pretty low for each of them. All of these are currently Call to Action shows and need plenty of support from the fans.

Over on AMC, The Walking Dead improved to a 4.9 rating with 10.5 million total viewers and I expect to see that one get another bump with its season finale next week. Into the Badlands improved some with its second Season 2 episode to a 1.5 rating with 3.4 million total viewers. This one will get one more week with a strong lead-in from TWD and then will be on its own after that.

On Saturday, Disney XD’s Guardians of the Galaxy remained low at a 0.07 rating with 250K total viewers and that one could use a Call to Action from its fans. On Friday, The CW’s The Originals improved to a 0.4 rating with one million total viewers for its second Season 4 episode. That one also placed in the Daily Nielsen Social Net Top 5 for the night and that could help it to earn a fifth season. Sleepy Hollow improved slightly for FOX to a 0.5 rating with two million total viewers, but I still think that one is on the way out unless it sees a very strong Call to Action from its fans.

Scorecard: The CW’s The 100 continues to slip in the Scorecard as its ratings remain low, dropping from Number 26 to Number 31 this week. But it has been renewed for a fifth season, so it is safe for now. The Originals improved for the week by eight rungs (from Number 44 to Number 36), but its standing in the Scorecard is still volatile as it just resumed its new season. Apart from that, most of the movement was just incidental for week with a few shows shifting by one rung.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through March 26th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.39 0.60 797.9% 8.13 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) Into the Badlands AMC 1.46 0.60 142.5% n/a Renewal Possible
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 1.08 0.52 106.6% 1.94 Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.33 0.20 66.1% 0.78 Renewal Likely
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.78 0.52 49.1% 1.39 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.33 Renewal Likely
8 (8) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
9 (9) Arrow (O) CW 0.66 0.52 25.8% 1.23 Renewed
10 (10) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.65 0.52 24.7% 1.17 Renewed
11 (11) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
12 (12) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 1.04 22.4% n/a Renewal Possible
13 (13) Supernatural (O) CW 0.63 0.52 19.6% 1.13 Renewed
14 (14) Shadowhunters Free 0.28 0.25 11.2% 0.50 Renewal Likely
15 (15) Gotham FOX 1.14 1.04 8.9% 1.88 Renewal Likely
16 (16) Lucifer FOX 1.08 1.04 4.0% 1.85 Renewed
17 (17) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
18 (18) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
19 (19) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
20 (20) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.95 1.04 -8.6% 1.53 Renewal Possible
21 (22) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.4% 0.63 Renewal Possible
22 (21) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -13.8% 0.43 Renewed
23 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.46 -14.1% 1.91 Renewed
24 (24) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.11 1.32 -15.7% 1.74 Renewal Possible
25 (25) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
26 (27) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
27 (28) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
28 (29) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
29 (30) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.00 1.27 -21.5% 1.67 On the Bubble
30 (31) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
31 (26) The 100 (O) CW 0.37 0.47 -21.8% 0.70 Renewed
32 (32) Making History (O) NBC 0.75 0.97 -22.5% n/a On the Bubble
33 (34) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.46 -23.5% 2.07 Cancellation Likely
34 (33) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -24.3% 1.30 Renewed
35 (35) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
36 (44) The Originals (O) CW 0.35 0.47 -26.3% n/a Renewal Possible
37 (36) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.52 -28.4% 0.75 Ended
38 (37) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
39 (38) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.07 0.10 -33.3% n/a Renewal Possible
40 (39) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.04 -35.8% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
41 (40) Powerless (O) NBC 0.82 1.30 -37.0% n/a Cancellation Likely
42 (41) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.75 1.27 -41.4% 1.61 Cancellation Likely
43 (42) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.04 -41.5% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
44 (43) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
45 (45) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.79 1.46 -45.6% 1.43 Final Season
46 (46) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.30 -47.1% 1.23 Cancellation Likely
47 (47) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.52 -47.1% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
48 (49) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.97 -47.5% 0.96 On the Bubble
49 (48) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
50 (50) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 On the Bubble
51 (51) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.30 -59.6% n/a Cancellation Likely
52 (52) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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