Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.
Ratings Results of Interest: The weekend ratings are finally available after the Nielsen outage! (Which I believe was caused by H.G. Wells going back in time to change the results and save Time After Time, but it didn’t work.) That show slipped to a 0.6 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 2.3 million total viewers on Sunday (despite Wells’ best efforts) and I am expecting it to get yanked from the schedule at any time now. On FOX, Making History slipped to a 0.7 rating with 1.8 million total viewers, and I don’t believe that one can survive long at those levels. Over on AMC, The Walking Dead improved slightly to a 4.9 rating with 10.7 million total viewers, slowing the Walking Dexit for at least a week.
On Saturday, Samurai Jack pulled a decent 0.76 rating with 1.6 million total viewers for its fifth season debut, and you have to wonder if Adult Swim might rethink this being the show’s final season. Over on Disney XD, Guardians of the Galaxy could only scrape up a 0.07 rating with 200k total viewers for its Season 2 debut. But that show’s survival is more closely tied to merchandising, so those ratings may not matter too much.
On Friday, MacGyver slipped back down to a 1.0 rating with 7.7 million total viewers after airing a repeat the previous week, but it is still at renewable levels for a Friday show. Over on FOX, Sleepy Hollow remained low at a 0.4 rating with 1.7 total viewers and it continues to look like this will be that show’s final season. On The CW, Vampire Diaries improved slightly to a 0.5 rating with 1.2 million total viewers for its series finale. The Originals takes up the 8 PM EST timeslot starting this week.
Scorecard: Both Making History and Time After Time dropped further on the Scorecard with their ratings declines in their second week. Guardians of the Galaxy entered on the low side, but as mentioned above, that may not matter much. Since Samurai Jack is in its final season and I don’t have much comparative data for Adult Swim, I will not be including that one in the Scorecard.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard based on the ratings through March 12th (metric definitions below):
|Rank (PW)||Series||Net||Std Avg||Net Bench||% Var||Live+7 Avg Rtg||Status|
|1 (1)||The Walking Dead||AMC||5.48||0.60||812.9%||8.27||Renewed|
|2 (2)||American Horror Story||FX||1.58||0.60||162.5%||3.16||Renewed|
|3 (3)||The Flash (O)||CW||1.10||0.53||108.1%||1.97||Renewed|
|4 (4)||The Magicians||Syfy||0.35||0.20||75.0%||0.80||Renewal Likely|
|5 (5)||Supergirl (O)||CW||0.79||0.53||50.1%||1.41||Renewed|
|6 (6)||Star Wars Rebels||DXD||0.14||0.10||44.7%||0.33||Renewed|
|8 (9)||Arrow (O)||CW||0.68||0.53||28.7%||1.23||Renewed|
|9 (8)||Legends of Tomorrow (O)||CW||0.67||0.53||26.6%||1.19||Renewed|
|10 (10)||Z Nation||Syfy||0.25||0.20||24.3%||0.42||Renewed|
|11 (12)||Son of Zorn (O)||FOX||1.28||1.07||19.9%||n/a||Renewal Possible|
|12 (11)||Supernatural (O)||CW||0.63||0.53||18.6%||1.15||Renewed|
|13 (13)||Shadowhunters||Free||0.28||0.25||11.2%||0.50||Renewal Likely|
|14 (14)||Gotham||FOX||1.14||1.07||6.6%||1.88||Renewal Likely|
|16 (17)||Stan Against Evil||IFC||0.08||0.08||-4.7%||n/a||Renewed|
|17 (16)||The Expanse||Syfy||0.19||0.20||-5.0%||0.43||Renewal Possible|
|18 (18)||The Librarians||TNT||0.47||0.50||-5.2%||0.88||Renewed|
|19 (19)||Channel Zero||Syfy||0.19||0.20||-5.8%||0.38||Renewed|
|20 (20)||The Last Man on Earth (O)||FOX||0.97||1.07||-8.7%||1.53||Renewal Possible|
|21 (22)||Colony||USA||0.27||0.30||-10.7%||0.63||Renewal Possible|
|22 (24)||The Good Place (O)||NBC||1.25||1.46||-14.5%||1.91||Renewed|
|23 (25)||The 100 (O)||CW||0.40||0.48||-15.8%||0.70||Renewed|
|24 (26)||MacGyver (O) (F)||CBS||1.11||1.33||-16.7%||1.78||Renewal Possible|
|25 (23)||Legion (O)||FX||0.49||0.60||-18.0%||1.37||Renewed|
|26 (27)||People of Earth||TBS||0.33||0.40||-18.1%||n/a||Renewed|
|27 (21)||Making History (O)||NBC||0.80||1.00||-19.7%||n/a||On the Bubble|
|28 (28)||Once Upon A Time (O)||ABC||1.03||1.28||-19.7%||1.67||On the Bubble|
|31 (31)||Van Helsing||Syfy||0.16||0.20||-21.3%||0.30||Renewed|
|32 (32)||Ash vs Evil Dead||STARZ||0.16||0.20||-21.5%||0.34||Renewed|
|33 (33)||Timeless||NBC||1.11||1.46||-23.9%||2.07||Cancellation Likely|
|34 (34)||Teen Wolf||MTV||0.22||0.30||-25.7%||0.44||Final Season|
|35 (35)||Vampire Diaries (O) (F)||CW||0.38||0.53||-29.0%||0.75||Ended|
|36 (n/a)||Guardians of the Galaxy||DXD||0.07||0.10||-30.0%||n/a||Renewal Possible|
|37 (36)||The Strain||FX||0.42||0.60||-30.8%||0.85||Renewed|
|38 (37)||Powerless (O)||NBC||0.82||1.28||-35.9%||n/a||Cancellation Likely|
|39 (38)||The Exorcist (O) (F)||FOX||0.67||1.07||-37.1%||1.09||Cancellation Likely|
|40 (39)||Agents of SHIELD (O)||ABC||0.75||1.28||-41.5%||1.61||Cancellation Likely|
|42 (41)||Scream Queens (O)||FOX||0.61||1.07||-42.7%||0.96||Cancellation Likely|
|43 (43)||Grimm (O) (F)||NBC||0.79||1.46||-45.9%||1.45||Final Season|
|44 (42)||Emerald City (O) (F)||NBC||0.69||1.28||-46.2%||1.23||Cancellation Likely|
|45 (46)||Frequency (O)||CW||0.28||0.53||-47.6%||0.51||Cancellation Likely|
|46 (45)||Sleepy Hollow (O) (F)||FOX||0.52||1.00||-47.8%||0.96||On the Bubble|
|48 (44)||Time After Time||ABC||0.65||1.31||-50.5%||n/a||Cancellation Likely|
|49 (48)||Falling Water||USA||0.15||0.30||-51.0%||0.30||On the Bubble|
|50 (49)||Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency||BBCA||0.09||0.40||-77.5%||n/a||Renewed|
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)