Cancellation Watch: Son of Zorn Ends on a Low Note, Plus the Scorecard

By | February 23, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings Trends: FOX’s live-action / animated comedy Son of Zorn wrapped up its first season on Sunday with a 0.7 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and 1.6 million total viewers.  That was up from its season low the prior week, but still well below its season-to-date average and FOX’s average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming (also excluding outlier Empire).  Son of Zorn‘s numbers have been up and down all season as you can see from the chart below.  The numbers have been quite good when the show has had a good lead-in from NFL Football bleed-over into Prime Time and/or a special Simpsons episode.  But without a strong lead-in, its numbers have been on the lower side.  Still, it has remained mostly above the network benchmark with its season-to-date numbers except for the last two weeks when the show has gone out with a bit of a whimper.  The constant preemptions have not helped, though, and it was off the air for two straight weeks prior to airing its final two eps.  I currently have it at a status of Renewal Possible, but I’m thnking it is pretty close to a toss-up.  I believe the network’s relationship with the show’s high profile executive producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller will ultimately dictate whether this one will come back, but if the network decided to give the show the ax, it would not completely surprise me.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, The Walking Dead slipped to a 5.3 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 11.1 million total viewers.  That’s down from its mid-season premiere the prior week, but up from the season lows it was experiencing last Fall.  On Saturday, Star Wars: Rebels returned from a one month hiatus with a 0.14 rating and 360k total viewers.  Disney XD’s scheduling of that show has been doing it no favors. On Friday, MacGyver slipped to a series low of a 0.9 rating with 7.3 million total viewers which was a bit of a surprise because it was near a series high 1.2 score the prior week.  Perhaps that is just a blip, but it is worth keeping an eye on that one over the next few weeks.  Emerald City (0.6 rating / 2.4M tot viewers) and Sleepy Hollow (0.5 rating / 1.8M tot viewers) both remained low and will likely not make it to the schedule next season.

The Scoredcard: Syfy’s The Expanse slipped to Number 18 on the Scorecard this week (down from Number 15) as its linear viewing numbers continue to slide.  Son of Zorn has also continued to slip on the Scorecard with its season ending ratings slide.  Most of the rest of the shows remained relatively stable with just some incidental movement.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through February 19th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.67 0.60 844.5% 8.43 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.13 0.53 112.1% 1.98 Renewed
4 (4) The Magicians Syfy 0.38 0.20 91.3% 0.90 Renewal Likely
5 (5) Supergirl (O) CW 0.82 0.53 53.9% 1.41 Renewed
6 (6) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.10 49.3% 0.33 Renewal Likely
7 (7) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
8 (8) Arrow (O) CW 0.70 0.53 31.9% 1.27 Renewed
9 (9) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.69 0.53 30.2% 1.20 Renewed
10 (10) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
11 (12) Supernatural (O) CW 0.64 0.53 20.9% 1.15 Renewed
12 (11) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 1.10 16.5% n/a Renewal Possible
13 (13) Shadowhunters Free 0.28 0.25 13.1% 0.50 Renewal Likely
14 (16) Gotham FOX 1.14 1.10 3.6% 1.88 Renewal Likely
15 (14) Legion (O) FX 0.61 0.60 1.7% n/a Renewal Likely
16 (17) Lucifer FOX 1.08 1.10 -1.0% 1.85 Renewed
17 (18) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
18 (15) The Expanse Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.0% n/a Renewal Possible
19 (19) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
20 (20) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
21 (21) Colony USA 0.27 0.30 -10.0% 0.65 Renewal Possible
22 (22) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.98 1.10 -10.8% 1.53 Renewal Possible
23 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.46 -14.4% 1.91 Renewed
24 (24) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.12 1.36 -17.9% 1.78 Renewal Possible
25 (25) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
26 (26) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.05 1.29 -18.8% 1.67 Renewal Possible
27 (27) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Renewal Possible
28 (28) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
29 (29) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
30 (30) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
31 (31) Timeless NBC 1.13 1.46 -22.9% 2.18 Cancellation Likely
32 (32) The 100 (O) CW 0.40 0.53 -24.6% 0.70 On the Bubble
33 (33) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
34 (34) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
35 (35) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.36 0.53 -31.9% 0.73 Final Season
36 (37) Powerless (O) NBC 0.90 1.46 -38.4% n/a Renewal Possible
37 (38) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.10 -38.9% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
38 (36) Beyond Free 0.15 0.25 -38.9% n/a Renewed
39 (39) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.76 1.29 -41.5% 1.65 Cancellation Likely
40 (40) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.10 -44.3% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
41 (41) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.46 -45.2% 1.46 Final Season
42 (43) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.53 -47.8% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
43 (42) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
44 (44) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 On the Bubble
45 (45) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.70 1.46 -52.1% 1.28 Cancellation Likely
46 (46) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) NBC 0.56 1.46 -61.9% 0.98 On the Bubble
47 (47) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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