Cancellation Watch: FOX Renews Lucifer for a Third Season, The Walking Dead Returns Up, Plus the Scorecard

By | February 14, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Renewal Announcement: FOX announced yesterday that their supernatural procedural Lucifer, based on the DC comic of the same name, will be returning for a third season with a full order of twenty two episodes.  The announcement does not come as a huge surprise seeing as the show has been a pretty solid performer for the network on Monday nights.  Its season to date average of a 1.1 rating (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic) is a little below the network’s overall average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming (with outlier Empire also excluded), but it has been doing well enough for FOX which also claims the show pulls in around eight million viewers per episode when mutliplatform viewing is factored in.  Oddly enough, Gotham was not included in yesterday’s announcement which has been performing at the same level and is currently in the syndication stretch.  They may still be negotiating contracts on that one, but I expect to hear word on a renewal before season end.   Both Lucifer and Gotham are currently on a second hiatus with the former returning on May 1st and the latter returning on April 24th.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, AMC’s The Walking Dead had its mid-season premiere and pulled a 5.7 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with twelve million total viewers.  Those are the best numbers that show has seen since its second Season 7 episode, but then its numbers are generally up with its mid-season bow.  We will see how it trends in the coming weeks to assess if the Walking Dexit has finally slowed for that show.  Over on FOX,  Son of Zorn plummeted to a series low 0.6 rating with 1.4 million total viewers, but then all of that network’s shows where down that night with stiff competition from the Grammy Awards.  On Friday, NBC’s Emerald City remained low at a 0.6 rating with 2.3 million total viewers.  That show continues to look like it will be one-season-and-done unless the network has an international arrangement that will keep it afloat.  Over on FOX, Sleepy Hollow slipped to a 0.5 rating with two million total viewers, and I’m thinking that international audience the network has touted previously may not be able to help this one earn a fifth season.  On CBS, MacGyver improved to a 1.2 rating with eight million total viewers, and if that network would quit with the preemptions and repeats, that show might be able to sustain that level.  I will update this post with the mid-season premiere ratings for The Walking Dead once those are available this morning, and I previously covered the Monday through Thursday shows at this link.

Scorecard: FX’s Legion had a good debut last week and it enters the Scorecard at Number 14.  Slipping for the week was Syfy’s The Expanse which slipped to Number 15 (down from Number 11) with the ratings drop from its second Season 2 episode, NBC’s Powerless which slid to Number 37 (down from Number 33) as its ratings took a hit last week, and NBC’s Emerald City which is now down to Number 45 as its numbers remain low.  Most of the rest of the movement on the Scorecard was just incidental shifts.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through February 12th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.71 0.60 851.7% 8.43 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (4) The Flash (O) CW 1.13 0.53 110.9% 2.03 Renewed
4 (3) The Magicians Syfy 0.41 0.20 106.7% n/a Renewal Likely
5 (5) Supergirl (O) CW 0.82 0.53 53.4% 1.45 Renewed
6 (6) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.10 50.0% 0.33 Renewal Likely
7 (8) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
8 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.71 0.53 32.8% 1.31 Renewed
9 (9) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.69 0.53 29.5% 1.20 Renewed
10 (12) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
11 (10) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.33 1.10 20.1% n/a Renewal Possible
12 (13) Supernatural (O) CW 0.64 0.53 19.3% 1.18 Renewed
13 (14) Shadowhunters Free 0.30 0.25 18.0% n/a Renewal Likely
14 (n/a) Legion (O) FX 0.69 0.60 15.0% n/a Renewal Likely
15 (11) The Expanse Syfy 0.22 0.20 7.5% n/a Renewal Possible
16 (15) Gotham FOX 1.14 1.10 2.9% 1.90 Renewal Likely
17 (16) Lucifer FOX 1.08 1.10 -1.7% 1.84 Renewal Possible
18 (17) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
19 (18) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
20 (19) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
21 (20) Colony USA 0.28 0.30 -6.7% 0.70 Renewal Possible
22 (21) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.98 1.10 -11.4% 1.53 Renewal Possible
23 (22) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.48 -15.7% 1.91 Renewed
24 (23) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.13 1.37 -17.2% 1.78 Renewal Possible
25 (25) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
26 (24) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.05 1.29 -18.7% 1.67 Renewal Possible
27 (26) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Renewal Possible
28 (28) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
29 (29) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
30 (30) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
31 (27) Timeless NBC 1.16 1.48 -22.0% 2.25 Cancellation Likely
32 (31) The 100 (O) CW 0.40 0.53 -25.0% n/a On the Bubble
33 (32) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.46 Final Season
34 (35) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
35 (36) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.36 0.53 -32.8% 0.73 Final Season
36 (34) Beyond Free 0.16 0.25 -34.7% n/a Renewed
37 (33) Powerless (O) NBC 0.95 1.48 -35.9% n/a Renewal Possible
38 (38) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.10 -39.3% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
39 (37) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.77 1.29 -40.4% 1.70 Cancellation Likely
40 (39) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.10 -44.7% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
41 (40) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.48 -46.1% 1.43 Final Season
42 (42) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
43 (41) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.53 -48.1% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
44 (44) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 On the Bubble
45 (43) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.72 1.48 -51.7% 1.43 Cancellation Likely
46 (45) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) NBC 0.57 1.48 -61.8% 1.00 On the Bubble
47 (46) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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