Cancellation Watch: Midnight Texas Gets Left Off NBC’s Mid-Season Schedule, Plus the Scorecard

By | December 10, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

midnight-texas-nbcScheduling Miss: NBC announced its Mid-Season schedule this last week which includes the debut of the superhero(less) comedy Powerless on February 2nd. But missing from the scheduling announcement is that network’s supernatural soap opera Midnight, Texas. That series comes from True Blood author Charlaine Harris, and looked to deliver a network television version of the HBO series that lasted for seven seasons. But the fact that Midnight, Texas has not found a place on the Mid-Season schedule is not a good sign. If NBC felt strongly about the show, they would definitely find a timeslot for it, possibly bumping under-performing Timeless from the high-profile Monday 10 PM EST hour. The network could be waiting for an hour to open up if something else fails, but that means that Midnight, Texas is getting the scheduling scraps, not a strong push for its first year. NBC could also hold it to Summer, but that is not a move a network does if they feel strongly about a show (i.e., ABC’s The Whispers which was pushed to Summer in 2015 for essentially a burn-off run). The other possibility is that NBC wants more development time for the show, similar to Emerald City which took two years to finally hit the schedule (its debut is now set for January 6th). So there is no clear evidence that the network has given up on this show just yet. But the fact that it doesn’t have a place on the upcoming schedule is less than encouraging.  You can see the preliminary Mid-Season schedule at this link.

Ratings Results of Interest:  On Thursday, USA’s Falling Water continues to slide after showing a few weeks of upturn as it slipped to a 0.13 rating based on overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 440k total viewers.  That one will likely be one-season-and-done unless it has significant international financing backing it.  On Wednesday, Syfy’s Incorporated had a 0.18 rating with 540k total viewers. That was up from the 0.15 it had for its premiere the prior week on Syfy, but down from the 0.20 it pulled with its simulcast on USA. Still, those are decent numbers for Syfy these days, and if the show holds around these levels then it should get a second season.  On Tuesday, Agents of SHIELD slipped to a series low 0.7 rating with 2.4 million total viewers for its Mid-Season finale as that show appears to be in its final season. Over on FOX, Scream Queens remained low at a 0.5 rating with 1.2 million total viewers and that one will also likely exit the schedule after completing its current season.  On Monday, NBC’s Timeless held at a 1.2 rating with 5.1 million total viewers, which means that it is not losing any ground, but it still counts as an under-performer in that high-profile timeslot. The full ratings results for the week will be available in the upcoming Tuesday Cancellation Watch post and you can see the rundown of last week’s numbers at this link.

Scorecard: I did not get Syfy’s new series Incorporated added to the Scorecard last week, but it is there now and performing just below that network’s benchmark.  Most of the movement in the Scorecard from last week is incidental and only by a slot or two, though TBS’s People of Earth improved by four slots as its ratings have trended up the last three weeks. Z Nation looks like it dropped several rungs, but I just adjusted an error with its season to date average.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through December 8th (metric definitions below):
(Links are to the show pages on this site with season to date ratings results and status updates)

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 The Walking Dead AMC 5.80 0.60 866.2% 9.20 Renewed
2 American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 The Flash (O) CW 1.16 0.60 92.6% 1.98 Low
4 Supergirl (O) CW 0.85 0.60 41.7% 1.35 Low
5 Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.14 0.10 41.1% 0.30 Low
6 Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.42 Renewed
7 Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 27.1% 0.40 Low
8 Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.43 1.14 24.8% n/a Low
9 Arrow (O) CW 0.74 0.60 24.1% 1.22 Low
10 Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.70 0.60 16.7% 1.06 Low
11 Supernatural (O) CW 0.65 0.60 8.3% 1.18 Low
12 The Librarians TNT 0.51 0.50 2.7% 0.90 Low
13 Gotham FOX 1.13 1.14 -1.3% 1.91 Low
14 Incorporated Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.0% n/a Low
15 Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
16 Lucifer FOX 1.06 1.14 -7.2% 1.84 Low
17 The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.99 1.14 -13.5% 1.55 Low
18 Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.05 1.27 -17.4% 1.72 Low
19 People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -17.9% n/a Low
20 MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.17 1.44 -19.1% 1.95 Low
21 Timeless NBC 1.32 1.64 -19.4% 2.48 Moderate
22 Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -19.5% 0.30 Renewed
23 Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -19.5% 0.35 Low
24 The Good Place (O) NBC 1.31 1.64 -20.4% 1.98 Low
25 Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -20.6% 0.36 Renewed
26 Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -26.7% 0.40 Final Season
27 The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
28 Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.84 1.27 -34.1% 1.78 Elevated
29 Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.37 0.60 -38.9% 0.70 Final Season
30 The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.69 1.14 -39.8% 1.09 Elevated
31 Salem WGN 0.09 0.15 -42.7% n/a Low
32 Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.64 1.14 -44.2% 1.17 Elevated
33 Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -50.0% n/a Medium
33 Frequency (O) CW 0.30 0.60 -50.0% 0.52 Medium
35 Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+3 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.  Last year I had the Live+7 delayed viewing, but the availability of that data was very spotty so I am shifting to this metric.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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