Cancellation Watch Hit List: The Exorcist is Likely to be Cancelled, Agents of SHIELD is On the Bubble, Westworld is Likely to be Renewed

The Fall season is a month old now, and quite a number of shows are currently in play on the Hit List.  But it is still pretty early and several of these shows have only aired one or two episodes thus far, so there could be a fair amount of movement between now and the next Hit List which I will post in mid-November.   This list stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations.  I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.  You can see the prior Hit Lists at this link.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List October 2016:

Cancelled/Ending: After CBS made fans wait for several months, Braindead has now landed in this category as expected with the recent announcement.  The Vampire Diaries moves into this category as it heads into its final season starting this Friday (you can see the listings for the week at this link). And HBO’s The Leftovers will be on its last season when it returns in early 2017.

Cancellation Likely: FOX’s The Exorcist starts out on the Hit List in this category as it is currently one of that network’s lowest rated shows. They may give it some time to prove itself, but what it really needs is a scheduling change to a better night. Short of that, I’m thinking this show will be one-season-and-done.

On the Bubble: A lot of shows are starting here this Fall because ratings for sci fi & fantasy entries have definitely been on the low side thus far. Agents of SHIELD is right on the edge of Cancellation Likely and will move there next time around if its ratings remain low. Falling Water may be too soon for this category after only one episode, but since it started at the bottom of the Scorecard, I feel obliged to put it here. The premiere episode was released early online, so perhaps that explains its low linear viewing, but it needs to get its numbers up starting with its second episode. Frequency is looking very low even for a CW show, and fans should hope that the first season story arc has a planned conclusion, because a second year is not looking likely at this point. The Last Man on Earth lives On the Bubble and has survived to a third season so far, so maybe its luck will hold. Scream Queens on the over hand is another of FOX’s lowest rated shows and looks unlikely to survive for another year. Wayward Pines is still hanging around from Summer, but I expect to hear word on it at anytime (its Season 2 renewal came about this time last year).

Renewal Possible: Quite a number of shows are in this category because they are not Bubble entries just yet, but I also don’t feel good enough about them to bump them into the Renewal Likely bucket either. Aftermath is looking good considering that Van Helsing just got the renewal nod at around the same ratings level and it also has the partnership with the Canadian Space Channel to prop it up. The Facebook Page for Netflix’s Between seems to suggest that it will be coming back for a third season, but no official announcement yet. I was tempted to put Syfy’s Channel Zero in the Renewal Likely category, but it only has one episode so far so I will see how it tracks. Freakish is one of those streaming shows that I have no data on, but I would give it a decent chance of a second season on Hulu. From Dusk Till Dawn is another show I have no data on because the El Rey channel’s numbers are not widely reported. But it is in its third season and low to moderate rated cable shows tend to shoot for a binge-worthy four to five season run once they have reached that point. NBC’s The Good Place is kind of hard to make a call on at this point. It’s numbers are well below the network average as the Scorecard shows, but it is performing in line with that network’s other Thursday shows. It is probably an expensive series to produce because of its special effects and name brand cast, though, so I am not certain if the network is expecting better performance from this one. Legends of Tomorrow started pretty low for The CW compared to where it was last year. But it will get a boost when the upcoming cross-over episodes hit, so expect to see its numbers rise a bit. Lucifer looks okay at this point compared to other FOX shows, but it doesn’t have too much room for slippage. MacGyver started strong for CBS but has since dropped notably. It did just get a full season pickup, so at least it has until May to prove itself.  Once Upon A Time is definitely down from last season, but it is ABC’s best performing show on Sundays. It will stick around as long as Disney wants to keep cranking its stock of characters through the storylines. Slasher is still awaiting on word from Chiller and the Canadian Super Channel, but I think it’s chances of a second season are decent. Son of Zorn continues to benefit from NFL bleed-over into Sunday nights and that may carry it to a full season order at least. Supergirl should probably be in the Renewal Likely category, but I want to see numbers from a few more episodes without a Superman cross-over to make that call. NBC’s Timeless is not looking great after three episodes. It is losing a fair amount of its lead-in from The Voice and if that keeps up it could get shuffled to a different timeslot if the network feels it is wasting key Prime Time real estate.

Renewal Likely: Arrow drops from the Unassailable ranks to this category to start the season. I still believe there is a very high likelihood that the show will get renewed for another season, but I won’t say it is guaranteed like in the past with its numbers currently at all-time lows. It’s not impossible that The CW could switch one of more of that show’s leads over to Legends of Tomorrow next season to better leverage its DC characters. Gotham‘s numbers don’t look great thus far in its third season, but since it is in the syndication stretch it is almost guaranteed to return for a fourth year (more on the almost at this link). Luke Cage is part of the Netflix Defenders series, and both Daredevil and Jessica Jones have earned renewals so I expect the same for the latest entry. Star Wars Rebels continues to pull low linear viewing with the 18-49 demographic, but it is younger-skewing and relies as much on its merchandising. Plus, another season gets it at or beyond the sixty-five episode mark preferred for a syndication run of an animated series. Supernatural bowed for its twelfth season with decent numbers for a CW show and I’m guessing a thirteenth is a good bet for this one. I would move it to unassailable, but a renewal is also contingent on the actors’ willingness to return for another year. Westworld has pulled decent numbers for HBO thus far, and I am expecting a renewal nod at any time now. And FOX still hasn’t made an official announcement on another season of the X-Files revival, but I expect we will see that in the 2017-18 season.

Renewed But Struggling: Two shows have joined this category since the last Hit List: MTV’s Scream and Freeform’s Stitchers. The former show just heard its renewal announcement, but only for a six-episode third season. MTV has not confirmed if that will be its last. And Stitchers also received a recent renewal despite its low numbers during its second season. Whether it will manage to stick around for the binge-worthy four to five season run we have been seeing from low to moderate rated cable shows that survive three years remains to be seen.

Renewed: Joining this list since the last time around is FX’s American Horror Story and The Strain, Starz’s Ash vs. Evil Dead, and Syfy’s Van Helsing. None of those renewals was a huge surprise, but The Strain will be heading into its final season next year.

Unassailable: The number of shows in this category continues to shrink as the Too-Much-TV-Era makes it more difficult to survive with all the competition out there.  American Horror Story dropped out previously and I have now moved Fear the Walking Dead out because the zombie rot appears to be setting in.  Both of those shows still have very good odds of surviving for more seasons, but they are also at ratings levels that could bring about a final year announcement along with a renewal.  As mentioned above, The CW’s Arrow has also dropped out of this category due to its declining ratings this season.  Among those left, The Walking Dead justified its inclusion by getting renewed for and eighth season before its seventh season has even begun.  And The Flash will assuredly continue to race forward into a fourth season.  Game of Thrones is set through its eighth season when it will wrap up its story.  And Outlander has been renewed through a fourth season.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.

Live+3 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+3 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.