Cancellation Watch Hit List: American Horror Story and Son of Zorn Look Good Early, Braindead is Still Likely to Be Cancelled

The Fall 2016 season is official upon us (more on that at this link), but there are still a few shows from this past Spring / Summer season awaiting word on their fate. The Hit List stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations. This is more of a look back at this point as only a few Fall shows have had their debuts thus far (though eleven more are dropping this week) and next month’s Hit List post will give a better perspective on the current season.  I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List September 2016:

Cancelled: There have been no cancellations since the last Hit List post, but expect a few over the next week or so as the networks deal with unfinished business from the Spring / Summer season (and try to slip the announcements in under the radar during all the hoopla of the Fall season starting. Beauty and the Beast just wrapped up its final season on The CW and The Leftovers is heading into its third and final year on HBO.

Cancellation Likely: CBS freshman entry Braindead remains at this status and I expect an announcement on it at any time. There is a very slight chance that the Amazon streaming deal could save it, but the network had a similar deal with Under the Dome and Extant last Summer and both where cancelled with higher ratings.

On the Bubble: FOX’s Wayward Pines and Freeform’s Stitchers remain at this status and I expect to hear final word on these in the next week or two. Wayward Pines was late in getting the renewal announcement last year and I still think it has a chance to come back for that third season M. Night Shyamalan wants to wrap up the story. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if FOX decided to cut ties with the show. The survival chances for low-rated Stitchers likely hinge on the international financing / partnerships Freeform has for the show. That also showed some “stickiness” in the social nets which the cable channels are paying more attention to these days.

Renewal Possible: I still have several Spring / Summer status in this category despite the fact that we have heard no news on them for months. I believe MTV’s Scream has a decent chance of coming back for a third season because its “stickiness” in the social nets is something that its network looks for. Netflix’s Between and Chiller‘s Slasher are toss ups, and the longer it takes for an announcement, the worse their chances. Both of those also hinge on partnerships with Canadian television networks. Of the early Fall entries, Son of Zorn had a very good debut behind a lead-in from NFL football, but we have to wait and see where it stands when it moves to its regular Sunday 8:30 PM EST timeslot later this week. The overnights for FX’s The Strain have not looked great over its first few weeks, but it is seeing decent Live+3 delayed viewing gains which are more important to the cable channels than the broadcast nets. The fate of El Rey’s From Dusk Till Dawn will depend mostly on the viability of its network which currently does not have wide exposure.

Renewal Likely: FX’s American Horror Story looks to be in good shape after its strong debut last week. But that one dropped off sharply last year, so we will have to see how it tracks in the coming weeks. There is still no official word on a second season of FOX’s X-Files revival, but it looks like it will happen sometime in the 2017-18 season.

Renewed but Struggling: This gives category you a good overview of shows that were renewed last year, though at questionable viewership levels. I look at some of the ones returning this Fall in more detail at this link. As for CBS’ recently renewed Zoo, that show was likely kept afloat in a large part by the streaming deal the network has with Netflix. If its numbers sink much further in its third season, then the Zoo could be closing.

Renewed: Joining this category since the last Hit List post is Syfy’s Killjoys and Dark Matter as well as TNT’s The Last Ship and Netflix’s Stranger Things. The renewal of the two Syfy entries was not a big surprise, especially when you factor in the partnership the network has with the Canadian Space Channel up north. At this point, both of these will likely be targeting the four to six season run that we have been seeing from moderate to low rated cable shows of late. TNT renewed The Last Ship for a fourth season then extended that to a fifth. That is partly a cost-saving measure as the two seasons will be filmed back to back to reduces expenses. Don’t be surprised if that one wraps up after its fifth year if its numbers do not improve from where they were at in the show’s third season. The second season of Netflix’s Stranger Things was expected as it became a huge hit for the streaming service over the Summer.

Unassailable: I’m leaving Fear the Walking Dead in this category, but consider it just barely hanging on to its bullet-proof status. It has dropped to series low numbers though it did see a bit of a bounce-back a week ago. It is certainly expensive to produce and I’m sure AMC would prefer higher viewership, though it is still one of the highest-rated scripted shows on cable. If its numbers don’t improve by next season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to wrap this one up by its fourth or fifth year. Among the other unassailable shows, I’m confident having The Flash, Arrow, and The Walking Dead in this category going into the Fall season.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.