Cancellation Watch Hit List: Braindead is Likely to Get Cancelled, Wayward Pines is On the Bubble, Dark Matter and Killjoys Have a Decent Chance of Renewal

You can find the latest edition of the Hit List at this link

We are half way through Summer now and have had a good look at all the shows that have debuted thus far in the hot months.  The Hit List (which replaces the Power Rankings) stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations. I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List July 2016:

Cancelled/Ending: Since the last Hit List post, Syfy’s Hunters was cancelled and Showtime’s Penny Dreadful ended with its third season finale.  The Hunters cancellation came as no surprise based on it low ratings and the fact that it had been kicked to the midnight hour on Mondays.  Penny Dreadful ending caught plenty of people be surprise, but apparently Showtime decided it was at a good ending point and its low ratings did not justify keeping such an expensive show going for another season.  We also learned that BBC America’s Orphan Black will be ending with its fifth year which I discuss in the Renewed section below.

Cancellation Likely: Hunters was in this category in the last Hit List post before getting the ax, and now CBS freshman series Braindead has joined these dubious ranks.  That show has slipped pretty low in the ratings (not helped at all by poor scheduling on the part of CBS) and looks certain to be one season and done.  It’s only hope is the streaming partnership CBS has with Amazon, but Extant had a similar arrangement last year and Braindead has dropped below the ratings that got that one cancelled.  Houdini & Doyle remains in the Cancellation Likely category as it has not performed well here or in Britain where it aired on ITV.

On The Bubble: Syfy’s 12 Monkeys was a bubble show last time around, but it managed to escape the Network Executioner (more on that below).  Still among these ranks are Wynnona Earp and Stitchers, both of which performed mediocre at best in their recent seasons and are still awaiting word on their fate.  I have also moved FOX’s  Wayward Pines to Bubble status this time around.  That series has performed very marginally in its second season, though at least better than Houdini & Doyle which aired on the same network.  M. Night Shyamalan wants a third season to tell his complete story, so there is a chance that his clout could keep the show going for one more year.

Renewal Possible:  There are quite a number of shows that are currently performing just good enough at this point that it looks like they could survive for another year.  Syfy’s Dark Matter and Killjoys are performing below their first season levels, but year over year declines are expected these days and their numbers are better than their network’s Spring shows.  Plus, Syfy has a partnership with the Canadian Space Channel on these, so I believe they are safe for now.  TNT’s The Last Ship is also down from last year, but it has had to traverse rough waters in its third season with scheduling issues and stiff competition.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the network announced its next season as its last, though.  MTV’s Scream is down year over year, but it continues to demonstrate “stickiness” in the social networks which is important for that younger-skewing network.  CBS Summer entry Zoo is at marginal at best levels and has little leeway for slippage, but I believe it is still hanging in there for now.  The streaming entries Between and Stranger Things (Netflix) as well as Powers (Play Station Network) are hard to make a call on, so I just lump them into this category.

Renewal Likely: This category has two holdovers from the regular season, Daredevil and The X-Files, and I expect renewal announcements for both to come at some point.

Renewed but Struggling: The only Spring / Summer entry in this category is 12 Monkeys which just barely got the renewal nod from Syfy (at least that’s my assumption).  It’s numbers were well below its first season performance and I was thinking this one would follow the same two-season-and-out path as other recent Syfy entries like Helix and Dominion.  But apparently Syfy had enough confidence in it to keep it going for a third year.  Don’t be surprised if that is is last, though.

Renewed: AMC’s Preacher has entered the renewed category since the last Hit List post and it was in the Renewal Likely category at that point.  It has performed well enough for a cable entry in its first season, though it’s definitely not a Walking Dead-type breakout hit.  Also joining the renewed ranks is BBC America’s Orphan Black, though next season will be its last.  I had been predicting that for a while based on its low ratings as I figured that BBC America would give would give the acclaimed show one more season to wrap up its storylines rather than just cancel it.

Unassailable: Joining the top tier of genre shows is Starz’s Outlander.  That one has not been a ratings juggernaut, but it has performed well enough and brought plenty of good buzz to the pay cable channel, so they decided to renew it through its fourth season (it just wrapped up its second).

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.