Cancellation Watch Hit List: Braindead is Likely to Get Cancelled, Wayward Pines is On the Bubble, Dark Matter and Killjoys Have a Decent Chance of Renewal

By | July 20, 2016

You can find the latest edition of the Hit List at this link

We are half way through Summer now and have had a good look at all the shows that have debuted thus far in the hot months.  The Hit List (which replaces the Power Rankings) stack ranks all the currently airing and returning shows based on how likely they are to continue for another season and it also includes the most recent cancellations. I have comments on the shows in the category sections below and you can also click on the links in the table to go to the show pages to see season to date ratings and status updates.

The Cancellation Watch Hit List July 2016:

Hit List Status Series Network / Airs (EST) Cancellation Alert StD Rating Net Avg Live+7 Rating
Cancelled/Ending Beauty and the Beast CW / Thu 8 PM Final Season 0.2 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Containment CW / Tue 9 PM Cancelled 0.4 0.6 n/a
Cancelled/Ending Hunters Syfy / Mon 10 PM Cancelled 0.1 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Penny Dreadful SHOW / Sun 10 PM Ended 0.2 n/a n/a
Cancellation Likely Braindead CBS / Sun 10 PM Elevated 0.5 n/a n/a
Cancellation Likely Houdini and Doyle FOX / Mon 9 PM High 0.5 n/a n/a
On the Bubble Stitchers ABC Family / Tue 10 PM Medium 0.1 n/a 0.3
On the Bubble Wayward Pines FOX / Wed 9 PM Moderate 0.7 n/a n/a
On the Bubble Wynonna Earp Syfy / Fri 10 PM Moderate 0.1 n/a 0.3
Renewal Possible Between Netflix / Streaming Low n/a n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Dark Matter Syfy / Fri 10 PM Low 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Killjoys Syfy / Fri 9 PM Low 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible The Last Ship TNT / Sun 9 PM Low 0.5 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Powers Play Station / Streaming Low n/a n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Scream MTV / Mon 10 PM Low 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Slasher Chill / Fri 9 PM Low 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Stranger Things Netflix / Streaming Low 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Zoo CBS / Tue 10 PM Low 0.8 n/a n/a
Renewal Likely Daredevil Netflix / Streaming Low n/a n/a n/a
Renewal Likely The X-Files FOX / Sun 9 PM Low 3.2 1.4 4.9
Renewed but Struggling The 100 CW / Thu 9 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 0.8
Renewed but Struggling 12 Monkeys Syfy / Mon 9 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed but Struggling Agents of SHIELD ABC / Tue 9 PM Renewed 1.2 1.3 2.1
Renewed but Struggling The Expanse Syfy / Tue 10 PM Renewed 0.2 n/a 0.5
Renewed but Struggling Grimm NBC / Fri 9 PM Renewed 0.9 1.4 1.7
Renewed but Struggling iZombie CW / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 0.8
Renewed but Struggling The Last Man on Earth FOX / Sun 9 PM Renewed 1.2 1.4 1.8
Renewed but Struggling Lucifer FOX / Mon 9 PM Renewed 1.5 1.4 2.5
Renewed but Struggling The Originals CW / Fri 8 PM Renewed 0.4 0.6 0.7
Renewed but Struggling Salem WGN / TBD Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed but Struggling Scream Queens FOX / Tue 9 PM Renewed 1.1 1.4 1.9
Renewed but Struggling The Shannara Chronicles MTV / Tue 10 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 1.0
Renewed but Struggling Sleepy Hollow FOX / Fri 9 PM Renewed 0.8 1.4 1.5
Renewed but Struggling Supergirl CW / Mon 8 PM Renewed 1.7 1.5 2.5
Renewed but Struggling Vampire Diaries CW / Fri 8 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 0.9
Renewed American Horror Story FX / Wed 10 PM Renewed 1.5 n/a n/a
Renewed Ash vs Evil Dead Starz / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewed Cleverman SUND / Wed 10 PM Renewed 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewed Colony USA / Thu 10 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.8
Renewed Doctor Who BBCA / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.7
Renewed From Dusk Till Dawn El Rey / TBD Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Gotham FOX / Mon 8 PM Renewed 1.4 1.4 2.4
Renewed Guardians of the Galaxy DXD / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Humans AMC / TBD Renewed 0.4 n/a n/a
Renewed Into the Badlands AMC / Sun 10 PM Renewed 1.8 n/a n/a
Renewed Jessica Jones Netflix / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Legends of Tomorrow CW / Thu 8 PM Renewed 0.8 0.6 1.4
Renewed The Librarians TNT / Sun 8 PM Renewed 0.5 n/a n/a
Renewed The Magicians Syfy / Mon 10 PM Renewed 0.3 n/a 0.6
Renewed The Man in the High Castle Amazon / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Once Upon A Time ABC / Sun 8 PM Renewed 1.4 1.3 2.3
Renewed Orphan Black BBCA / Thu 10 PM Final Season 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewed Outcast Cin / Fri 10 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Preacher AMC / Sun 10 PM Renewed 0.6 n/a n/a
Renewed Saving Hope ION / Tue 11 PM Renewed 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewed Sense8 Netflix / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Shadowhunters ABCF / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.9
Renewed Star Wars Rebels DXD / Wed 9 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a 0.3
Renewed The Strain FX / Sun 10 PM Renewed 0.6 n/a n/a
Renewed Supernatural CW / Thu 9 PM Renewed 0.7 0.6 1.2
Renewed Teen Wolf MTV / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.8
Renewed Z Nation Syfy / TBD Renewed 0.3 n/a n/a
Unassailable Arrow CW / Wed 8 PM Renewed 0.9 0.6 1.5
Unassailable Fear the Walking Dead AMC / Sun 9 PM Renewed 2.2 n/a 3.7
Unassailable The Flash CW / Tue 8 PM Renewed 1.4 0.6 2.2
Unassailable Game of Thrones HBO / Sun 9 PM Renewed 3.9 n/a n/a
Unassailable Outlander Starz / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.2 n/a 0.4
Unassailable The Walking Dead AMC / Sun 9 PM Renewed 6.5 n/a 9.5

penny-dreadfulCancelled/Ending: Since the last Hit List post, Syfy’s Hunters was cancelled and Showtime’s Penny Dreadful ended with its third season finale.  The Hunters cancellation came as no surprise based on it low ratings and the fact that it had been kicked to the midnight hour on Mondays.  Penny Dreadful ending caught plenty of people be surprise, but apparently Showtime decided it was at a good ending point and its low ratings did not justify keeping such an expensive show going for another season.  We also learned that BBC America’s Orphan Black will be ending with its fifth year which I discuss in the Renewed section below.

Cancellation Likely: Hunters was in this category in the last Hit List post before getting the ax, and now CBS freshman series Braindead has joined these dubious ranks.  That show has slipped pretty low in the ratings (not helped at all by poor scheduling on the part of CBS) and looks certain to be one season and done.  It’s only hope is the streaming partnership CBS has with Amazon, but Extant had a similar arrangement last year and Braindead has dropped below the ratings that got that one cancelled.  Houdini & Doyle remains in the Cancellation Likely category as it has not performed well here or in Britain where it aired on ITV.

wayward-pinesOn The Bubble: Syfy’s 12 Monkeys was a bubble show last time around, but it managed to escape the Network Executioner (more on that below).  Still among these ranks are Wynnona Earp and Stitchers, both of which performed mediocre at best in their recent seasons and are still awaiting word on their fate.  I have also moved FOX’s  Wayward Pines to Bubble status this time around.  That series has performed very marginally in its second season, though at least better than Houdini & Doyle which aired on the same network.  M. Night Shyamalan wants a third season to tell his complete story, so there is a chance that his clout could keep the show going for one more year.

Renewal Possible:  There are quite a number of shows that are currently performing just good enough at this point that it looks like they could survive for another year.  Syfy’s Dark Matter and Killjoys are performing below their first season levels, but year over year declines are expected these days and their numbers are better than their network’s Spring shows.  Plus, Syfy has a partnership with the Canadian Space Channel on these, so I believe they are safe for now.  TNT’s The Last Ship is also down from last year, but it has had to traverse rough waters in its third season with scheduling issues and stiff competition.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the network announced its next season as its last, though.  MTV’s Scream is down year over year, but it continues to demonstrate “stickiness” in the social networks which is important for that younger-skewing network.  CBS Summer entry Zoo is at marginal at best levels and has little leeway for slippage, but I believe it is still hanging in there for now.  The streaming entries Between and Stranger Things (Netflix) as well as Powers (Play Station Network) are hard to make a call on, so I just lump them into this category.

Renewal Likely: This category has two holdovers from the regular season, Daredevil and The X-Files, and I expect renewal announcements for both to come at some point.

12-monkeys-S2Renewed but Struggling: The only Spring / Summer entry in this category is 12 Monkeys which just barely got the renewal nod from Syfy (at least that’s my assumption).  It’s numbers were well below its first season performance and I was thinking this one would follow the same two-season-and-out path as other recent Syfy entries like Helix and Dominion.  But apparently Syfy had enough confidence in it to keep it going for a third year.  Don’t be surprised if that is is last, though.

Renewed: AMC’s Preacher has entered the renewed category since the last Hit List post and it was in the Renewal Likely category at that point.  It has performed well enough for a cable entry in its first season, though it’s definitely not a Walking Dead-type breakout hit.  Also joining the renewed ranks is BBC America’s Orphan Black, though next season will be its last.  I had been predicting that for a while based on its low ratings as I figured that BBC America would give would give the acclaimed show one more season to wrap up its storylines rather than just cancel it.

Unassailable: Joining the top tier of genre shows is Starz’s Outlander.  That one has not been a ratings juggernaut, but it has performed well enough and brought plenty of good buzz to the pay cable channel, so they decided to renew it through its fourth season (it just wrapped up its second).

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than theHit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.

 

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