DVR Skew: The Final Delayed Viewing Numbers for the 2015-16 Season

By | June 22, 2016

limitless-open-your-mindBelow are the final Live+7 numbers for the 2015-16 season. Not much has changed from the last time that I posted these as the delayed viewing results typically follow the same pattern as the overnights, just with larger numbers (which networks like these days). Of course, Limitless is one of the main exceptions as it saw better than normal gains in the Live+7 results this past season. But despite all the netspeak about the overnights being “meaningless”, the gains that show saw could not help it. In the chart below, it is ahead of such renewed shows as Once Upon A Time, Agents of SHIELD, and Grimm, but CBS for some reason could not bring themselves to give it a second season renewal (and they once again demonstrated their genre aversion by booting all their sci fi / fantasy shows with Angel from Hell also cancelled and Supergirl kicked to The CW). And as I have said before, there is still not much reason to believe that delayed viewing holds any more weight than the overnights for the broadcast network shows based on the fact the overnights remain the leading indicators for a show’s fate. Not included in this list is Containment and Person of Interest because they started too late in the season. And the delayed viewing for cable shows was not available for most of the season, so I did not compile a final list for those entries (though I will be publishing some numbers for the Spring / Summer shows next month).

Following are the final delayed viewing results for the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows (through the week of May 23rd) ranked by Live+7 average rating (metric definitions below):

Rank Live+7 Series Network Avg Over-night Rtg Live+7 Days Tracked Live+SD Avg Rating Tracked for Live+7 Avg Live+7 Rtg Live+7 % Gain Cancellation Alert
1 The X-Files FOX 3.2 6 3.2 4.9 54.7% Low
2 Lucifer FOX 1.5 13 1.5 2.5 73.3% Renewed
3 Supergirl CBS 1.7 16 1.7 2.5 49.3% Renewed
4 Gotham FOX 1.4 22 1.4 2.4 72.7% Renewed
5 Limitless CBS 1.4 22 1.4 2.4 75.8% Cancelled
6 Once Upon A Time ABC 1.4 20 1.4 2.3 64.9% Renewed
7 The Flash CW 1.4 23 1.4 2.2 63.1% Renewed
8 Heroes Reborn NBC 1.2 11 1.2 2.1 77.3% Cancelled
9 Agents of SHIELD ABC 1.2 21 1.2 2.1 79.0% Renewed
10 Angel from Hell CBS 1.4 1 1.3 1.9 46.2% Cancelled
11 Scream Queens FOX 1.1 11 1.1 1.9 79.3% Renewed
12 The Last Man on Earth FOX 1.2 12 1.1 1.8 66.2% Renewed
13 Grimm NBC 0.9 21 0.9 1.7 84.7% Renewed
14 Arrow CW 0.9 14 0.9 1.5 67.7% Renewed
15 Sleepy Hollow FOX 0.8 16 0.8 1.5 76.7% Renewed
16 Agent Carter ABC 0.8 6 0.8 1.4 79.2% Cancelled
17 Legends of Tomorrow CW 0.8 15 0.8 1.4 78.2% Renewed
18 Minority Report FOX 0.7 7 0.7 1.2 70.6% Cancelled
19 Supernatural CW 0.7 16 0.7 1.2 80.6% Renewed
20 Vampire Diaries CW 0.5 22 0.5 0.9 99.0% Renewed
21 Second Chance FOX 0.6 6 0.5 0.9 67.7% Cancelled
22 Galavant ABC 0.6 2 0.6 0.9 54.5% Cancelled
23 iZombie CW 0.5 6 0.5 0.8 69.0% Renewed
24 The 100 CW 0.5 12 0.5 0.8 78.2% Renewed
25 The Originals CW 0.4 21 0.4 0.7 93.8% Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Avg Overnight Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the final overnights for live broadcast.

Live+7 Days Tracked: The days that the Live+7 data was available for a show in the Live+7 Top 25 charts published by TV by The Numbers.

Live+SD Avg Rtg Tracked for Live+7: This is the average Live+SD rating for the Live+7 Days Tracked above.  This will vary from the Avg Overnight Rtg because of the two week delay on Live+7 data.

Avg Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 numbers for the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).

Live+7 % Gain: The average Live+7 rating percent gain from the average overnight rating based on the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).  The more datapoints available in the Live+7 Days Tracked, the more accurate this will be and the closer the math will work.  Shows with fewer datapoints will have larger discrepancies.

Cancellation Alert: My estimation on a show’s chances of being cancelled.  The five levels from least to most likely to be cancelled are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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