Cancellation Watch Hit List: Final Statuses on Limitless, Agent Carter, Supergirl, and More

By | May 9, 2016

You can find the latest edition of the Hit List at this link

limitless-cbs-cancelledThis is the second edition of the Cancellation Watch Hit List (replacing the Power Rankings) and it shows the final status of all the current shows before we head into the Upfronts next week (I’m dodging final predictions because it has been such an unpredictable year).  That is when the broadcast networks present their schedules for the 2016-17 season and they must have all of their cancellation/renewal decisions finalized by that point (you can see the timing of the presentations at this link).  This does not include the Spring cable entries like Orphan Black, Penny Dreadful, Damien, and so on, just the broadcast networks.  Though we may hear word at the end of the week on struggling Syfy shows like 12 Monkeys and Hunters because the NBC/Universal owned cable channels will be having their presentations next Thursday.

I have expanded on the Hit List Status categories, breaking out Renewed into Renewed but Struggling, Renewed, and Unassailable, and you can read the description of those categories below.  Following is a quick rundown on each category and you can click on the link to the show pages below to get more status info on each entry.

person-of-interest-season-5Cancelled/Ending: Person of Interest had its final season debut last week and the initial numbers for it didn’t look too bad.  Considering it is a fifth year series that already has a syndication deal (where shows really start to turn a profit), seems like CBS may have pulled the trigger too soon to end this one.  The other shows in this section will all roll-off with the next list because they are part of the 2015-16 season and it will reset next time around.

Cancellation Likely: FOX’s joint venture with ITV, Houdini & Doyle, stumbled out of the gate last week and there is no reason to believe it will turn things around in the coming weeks.  This show will almost certainly not return for a second season on FOX, and the poor early reviews suggest that ITV may not have an interest in continuing it either.  And ITV’s other show getting exposure in the states, Beowulf which aired on Esquire, appears to be dead as well, though I still have not seen an official cancellation announcement.  FOX should finally make the cancellations official for its long-suffering shows Minority Report and Second Chance when it presents its schedule next week.

On the Bubble: There are a lot of shows here and a lot of uncertainty as we head into next week.  For shows like Agent Carter and Sleepy Hollow, the rumors and predictions have been all over the board, some suggesting certain renewal while others assure cancellation.  I’m thinking the former series is done, though a cross-over on Agents of SHIELD next season is possible.  As for Sleepy Hollow, the ratings are in the toilet and fans were none too pleased by the season finale’s turn of events.  But FOX may be trying to push this one to a syndication friendly count of episodes (gonna take more than one more season, though) and the network has some space to fill on its schedule next year without American Idol coming back.  So Sleepy Hollow has a chance.  CBS freshman entry Limitless should be okay based on its delayed viewing gains (remember that the network claimed it is paying attention to those numbers), but you never know for certain with that sci fi-averse broadcast channel.  ABC’s Galavant seems certainly a goner with the historically low ratings it pulled in its second season, but it does appear to be a favorite of the network execs and it has beat the odds before.  The CW’s Containment has been pulling decent numbers for its network, but its late start and “limited run” status (plus all the development that net has in the pipeline) seem to suggest it will not come back.  As for the Syfy Spring shows, they are pulling the lowest numbers we have seen yet for non-heavily leveraged international partnership entries (like Lost Girl and Bitten) on that channel, and I don’t like their chances.  12 Monkeys has already played the escape-the-Network-Executioner-free card that Syfy has typically been giving its first year shows.  Wynonna Earp and Hunters may find their cards revoked based on the low numbers they have been pulling.  The survival of the other struggling cable entries Stitchers (Freeform) and Damien (A&E) will hinge on how much international financing/partnerships they have backing them.  And I don’t know if Comedy Central’s Time Traveling Bong was intended as a tryout for an ongoing series, but its quick drop-off in the ratings after a decent start may not have convinced the network to bring it back for another round.

Supergirl-CBSRenewal Possible: Supergirl has moved from the Renewal Likely category to here based on what I have been hearing about it lately (more on that at this link).  I still think it has a decent chance of coming back, but it could be moving to The CW or perhaps another location.  Cable entries Orphan Black, Penny Dreadful, and Slasher have all been pulling pretty low numbers this year, but they have international partnerships and financing backing them, so they could hang on for another season or so.  Hulu’s Deadbeat is likely an inexpensive entry for that streaming service, so it could survive for another year as well.  But with no numbers to gauge it by, it’s hard to say for sure.

Renewal Likely: Starz’s Outlander has returned for its second season to decent numbers for that channel and I expect a renewal announcement at anytime for that show.  Netflix has not given the greenlight to a third season of Daredevil just yet, but I expect they will before too long based on the positive feedback from its second year.  And The X-Files seems certain to continue its revival run based on the the ratings unless a deal cannot be worked out to bring all the principals back.

Renewed by Struggling: This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.  Both ABC’s Agents of SHIELD and The CW’s The Originals received fourth season renewals to get them to a syndication friendly count of episodes despite series low ratings levels.  These two could likely be wrapping up next year, though it’s always hard to gauge when renewal-happy CW will end one of its shows.  NBC’s Grimm was at series low levels this season and has only received a thirteen episode renewal, so its producers could be looking at wrapping its storylines next year.  FOX’s Lucifer probably got the renewal nod based on its early numbers and the fact that the network has space to fill without American Idol on the schedule next year.  If its numbers do not improve, it will need a deal from the Devil to earn a third season.  And that network’s Scream Queens was a surprise renewal, likely because the execs wanted to have at least one survivor among its Fall freshmen shows.  It will probably just get tacked on to the American Horror Story syndication package (same creators/production company) and then that’s it for this one.  CW entry Vampire Diaries looks like it could be heading into its final season, and its hard to gauge the low-rated entries from that network like iZombie and The 100.  They still have a ways to go before getting to a syndication friendly count of episodes, so it will depend on if the network can find room on its schedule to keep them going.  The continued survival of the “ratings noise” cable entries like The Expanse, Scream, The Shannara Chronicles, and Salem depends heavily on how much international backing they have.

gotham-wrath-of-the-villainsRenewed: Most of these shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.  FOX’s Gotham is practically guaranteed to survive into a fourth season because that gets it to a syndication friendly count of episodes.  Some of the shows in this category, especially the streaming service entries like Sense8, Between, and, Powers, are hard to gauge because I do not see any performance numbers.  Others like Dark Matter and Killjoys hinge heavily on their international partnerships and how well they perform up in the other countries they air.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.  The Walking Dead and Fear the Walking Dead are both set for several more years at least, despite all the grumblings about the former’s season finale.  Game of Thrones is a lock to last through its intended conclusion which is currently targeted for its eighth year, though don’t be surprised if HBO doesn’t try to stretch that out.  The Flash will race right into a fourth year after next season because that gets it to a syndication friendly count of episodes and Arrow should be sticking around for a while as well.

Following is the full list which gives a snapshot of all the currently airing and returning sci fi / fantasy shows with their renewal / cancellation prospects. This is sorted by the Hit List Status (see definitions below) then by series name.

Links are to the show pages on this site where status updates and season to date numbers have been updated through May 5th.

Hit List Status Series Network / Airs (EST) Cancellation Alert StD Rating Net Avg Live+7 Rating
Cancelled/Ending 11-22-63 Hulu / Streaming Mini-Series n/a n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Angel from Hell CBS / Thu 9:30 PM Cancelled 1.4 1.5 1.9
Cancelled/Ending Beauty and the Beast CW / Thu 8 PM Final Season 0.2 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Bitten Syfy / Mon 11 PM Final Season 0.2 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Heroes Reborn NBC / Thu 8 PM Cancelled 1.2 1.4 2.1
Cancelled/Ending The Leftovers HBO / Sun 10 PM Final Season 0.3 n/a 0.7
Cancelled/Ending Lost Girl Syfy / Mon 10 PM Final Season 0.2 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending Person of Interest CBS / Mon/Tue 10 PM Cancelled 1.2 n/a n/a
Cancelled/Ending You Me and the Apocalypse NBC / Thu 8 PM Cancelled 0.7 1.4 n/a
Cancellation Likely Beowulf Esq / Sat 9 PM Elevated 0.0 n/a n/a
Cancellation Likely Houdini and Doyle FOX / Mon 9 PM Elevated 0.7 n/a n/a
Cancellation Likely Minority Report FOX / Mon 9 PM High 0.7 1.4 1.2
Cancellation Likely Second Chance FOX / Fri 9 PM High 0.6 1.4 0.9
On the Bubble 12 Monkeys Syfy / Mon 9 PM Moderate 0.1 n/a n/a
On the Bubble Agent Carter ABC / Tue 9 PM Medium 0.8 1.3 1.4
On the Bubble Containment CW / Tue 9 PM Moderate 0.5 0.6 n/a
On the Bubble Damien A&E / Mon 10 PM Moderate 0.2 n/a 0.4
On the Bubble Galavant ABC / Sun 8 PM Moderate 0.6 1.3 0.9
On the Bubble Hunters Syfy / Mon 10 PM Moderate 0.1 n/a n/a
On the Bubble Limitless CBS / Tue 10 PM Moderate 1.4 1.5 2.4
On the Bubble Sleepy Hollow FOX / Fri 9 PM Medium 0.8 1.4 1.5
On the Bubble Stitchers ABC Family / Tue 10 PM Moderate 0.3 n/a 0.4
On the Bubble Time Traveling Bong CC / Wed 10:30 PM Moderate 0.2 n/a n/a
On the Bubble Wynonna Earp Syfy / Fri 10 PM Moderate 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Deadbeat Hulu / Streaming Low n/a n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Orphan Black BBCA / Sat 10 PM Low 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Penny Dreadful SHOW / Sun 10 PM Low 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Slasher Chill / Fri 9 PM Low 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewal Possible Supergirl CBS / Mon 8 PM Low 1.7 1.5 2.5
Renewal Likely Daredevil Netflix / Streaming Low n/a n/a n/a
Renewal Likely Outlander Starz / Sat 9 PM Low 0.3 n/a n/a
Renewal Likely The X-Files FOX / Sun 9 PM Low 3.2 1.4 4.9
Renewed but Struggling The 100 CW / Thu 9 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 0.9
Renewed but Struggling Agents of SHIELD ABC / Tue 9 PM Renewed 1.2 1.3 2.2
Renewed but Struggling The Expanse Syfy / Tue 10 PM Renewed 0.2 n/a 0.5
Renewed but Struggling Grimm NBC / Fri 9 PM Renewed 0.9 1.4 1.7
Renewed but Struggling iZombie CW / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 0.8
Renewed but Struggling The Last Man on Earth FOX / Sun 9 PM Renewed 1.2 1.4 1.9
Renewed but Struggling Lucifer FOX / Mon 9 PM Renewed 1.5 1.4 2.6
Renewed but Struggling The Originals CW / Fri 8 PM Renewed 0.4 0.6 0.8
Renewed but Struggling Salem WGN / TBD Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed but Struggling Scream MTV / Tue 10 PM Renewed 0.3 n/a n/a
Renewed but Struggling Scream Queens FOX / Tue 9 PM Renewed 1.1 1.4 1.9
Renewed but Struggling The Shannara Chronicles MTV / Tue 10 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 1.0
Renewed but Struggling Vampire Diaries CW / Fri 8 PM Renewed 0.5 0.6 1.0
Renewed American Horror Story FX / Wed 10 PM Renewed 1.5 n/a n/a
Renewed Ash vs Evil Dead Starz / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewed Between Netflix / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Colony USA / Thu 10 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.8
Renewed Dark Matter Syfy / TBD Renewed 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewed Doctor Who BBCA / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.7
Renewed From Dusk Till Dawn El Rey / TBD Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Gotham FOX / Mon 8 PM Renewed 1.4 1.4 2.5
Renewed Guardians of the Galaxy DXD / Sat 9 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Humans AMC / TBD Renewed 0.4 n/a n/a
Renewed Into the Badlands AMC / Sun 10 PM Renewed 1.8 n/a n/a
Renewed Jessica Jones Netflix / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Killjoys Syfy / TBD Renewed 0.2 n/a n/a
Renewed The Last Ship TNT / Sun 9 PM Renewed 0.7 n/a n/a
Renewed Legends of Tomorrow CW / Thu 8 PM Renewed 0.8 0.6 1.5
Renewed The Librarians TNT / Sun 8 PM Renewed 0.5 n/a n/a
Renewed The Magicians Syfy / Mon 10 PM Renewed 0.3 n/a 0.6
Renewed The Man in the High Castle Amazon / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Once Upon A Time ABC / Sun 8 PM Renewed 1.4 1.3 2.4
Renewed Powers Play Station / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Saving Hope ION / Tue 11 PM Renewed 0.0 n/a n/a
Renewed Sense8 Netflix / Streaming Renewed n/a n/a n/a
Renewed Shadowhunters ABCF / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.9
Renewed Star Wars Rebels DXD / Wed 9 PM Renewed 0.1 n/a 0.3
Renewed The Strain FX / Sun 10 PM Renewed 0.6 n/a n/a
Renewed Supernatural CW / Wed 9 PM Renewed 0.7 0.6 1.2
Renewed Teen Wolf MTV / Tue 9 PM Renewed 0.4 n/a 0.8
Renewed Wayward Pines FOX / Wed 9 PM Renewed 1.1 n/a n/a
Renewed Z Nation Syfy / TBD Renewed 0.3 n/a n/a
Renewed Zoo CBS / TBD Renewed 1.1 n/a n/a
Unassailable Arrow CW / Wed 8 PM Renewed 1.0 0.6 1.6
Unassailable Fear the Walking Dead AMC / Sun 9 PM Renewed 2.5 n/a 4.2
Unassailable The Flash CW / Tue 8 PM Renewed 1.4 0.6 2.3
Unassailable Game of Thrones HBO / Sun 9 PM Renewed 3.8 n/a n/a
Unassailable The Walking Dead AMC / Sun 9 PM Renewed 6.5 n/a 9.5

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than the Hit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *