Cancellation Watch Hit List: Final Statuses on Limitless, Agent Carter, Supergirl, and More

You can find the latest edition of the Hit List at this link

This is the second edition of the Cancellation Watch Hit List (replacing the Power Rankings) and it shows the final status of all the current shows before we head into the Upfronts next week (I’m dodging final predictions because it has been such an unpredictable year).  That is when the broadcast networks present their schedules for the 2016-17 season and they must have all of their cancellation/renewal decisions finalized by that point (you can see the timing of the presentations at this link).  This does not include the Spring cable entries like Orphan Black, Penny Dreadful, Damien, and so on, just the broadcast networks.  Though we may hear word at the end of the week on struggling Syfy shows like 12 Monkeys and Hunters because the NBC/Universal owned cable channels will be having their presentations next Thursday.

I have expanded on the Hit List Status categories, breaking out Renewed into Renewed but Struggling, Renewed, and Unassailable, and you can read the description of those categories below.  Following is a quick rundown on each category and you can click on the link to the show pages below to get more status info on each entry.

Cancelled/Ending: Person of Interest had its final season debut last week and the initial numbers for it didn’t look too bad.  Considering it is a fifth year series that already has a syndication deal (where shows really start to turn a profit), seems like CBS may have pulled the trigger too soon to end this one.  The other shows in this section will all roll-off with the next list because they are part of the 2015-16 season and it will reset next time around.

Cancellation Likely: FOX’s joint venture with ITV, Houdini & Doyle, stumbled out of the gate last week and there is no reason to believe it will turn things around in the coming weeks.  This show will almost certainly not return for a second season on FOX, and the poor early reviews suggest that ITV may not have an interest in continuing it either.  And ITV’s other show getting exposure in the states, Beowulf which aired on Esquire, appears to be dead as well, though I still have not seen an official cancellation announcement.  FOX should finally make the cancellations official for its long-suffering shows Minority Report and Second Chance when it presents its schedule next week.

On the Bubble: There are a lot of shows here and a lot of uncertainty as we head into next week.  For shows like Agent Carter and Sleepy Hollow, the rumors and predictions have been all over the board, some suggesting certain renewal while others assure cancellation.  I’m thinking the former series is done, though a cross-over on Agents of SHIELD next season is possible.  As for Sleepy Hollow, the ratings are in the toilet and fans were none too pleased by the season finale’s turn of events.  But FOX may be trying to push this one to a syndication friendly count of episodes (gonna take more than one more season, though) and the network has some space to fill on its schedule next year without American Idol coming back.  So Sleepy Hollow has a chance.  CBS freshman entry Limitless should be okay based on its delayed viewing gains (remember that the network claimed it is paying attention to those numbers), but you never know for certain with that sci fi-averse broadcast channel.  ABC’s Galavant seems certainly a goner with the historically low ratings it pulled in its second season, but it does appear to be a favorite of the network execs and it has beat the odds before.  The CW’s Containment has been pulling decent numbers for its network, but its late start and “limited run” status (plus all the development that net has in the pipeline) seem to suggest it will not come back.  As for the Syfy Spring shows, they are pulling the lowest numbers we have seen yet for non-heavily leveraged international partnership entries (like Lost Girl and Bitten) on that channel, and I don’t like their chances.  12 Monkeys has already played the escape-the-Network-Executioner-free card that Syfy has typically been giving its first year shows.  Wynonna Earp and Hunters may find their cards revoked based on the low numbers they have been pulling.  The survival of the other struggling cable entries Stitchers (Freeform) and Damien (A&E) will hinge on how much international financing/partnerships they have backing them.  And I don’t know if Comedy Central’s Time Traveling Bong was intended as a tryout for an ongoing series, but its quick drop-off in the ratings after a decent start may not have convinced the network to bring it back for another round.

Renewal Possible: Supergirl has moved from the Renewal Likely category to here based on what I have been hearing about it lately (more on that at this link).  I still think it has a decent chance of coming back, but it could be moving to The CW or perhaps another location.  Cable entries Orphan Black, Penny Dreadful, and Slasher have all been pulling pretty low numbers this year, but they have international partnerships and financing backing them, so they could hang on for another season or so.  Hulu’s Deadbeat is likely an inexpensive entry for that streaming service, so it could survive for another year as well.  But with no numbers to gauge it by, it’s hard to say for sure.

Renewal Likely: Starz’s Outlander has returned for its second season to decent numbers for that channel and I expect a renewal announcement at anytime for that show.  Netflix has not given the greenlight to a third season of Daredevil just yet, but I expect they will before too long based on the positive feedback from its second year.  And The X-Files seems certain to continue its revival run based on the the ratings unless a deal cannot be worked out to bring all the principals back.

Renewed by Struggling: This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.  Both ABC’s Agents of SHIELD and The CW’s The Originals received fourth season renewals to get them to a syndication friendly count of episodes despite series low ratings levels.  These two could likely be wrapping up next year, though it’s always hard to gauge when renewal-happy CW will end one of its shows.  NBC’s Grimm was at series low levels this season and has only received a thirteen episode renewal, so its producers could be looking at wrapping its storylines next year.  FOX’s Lucifer probably got the renewal nod based on its early numbers and the fact that the network has space to fill without American Idol on the schedule next year.  If its numbers do not improve, it will need a deal from the Devil to earn a third season.  And that network’s Scream Queens was a surprise renewal, likely because the execs wanted to have at least one survivor among its Fall freshmen shows.  It will probably just get tacked on to the American Horror Story syndication package (same creators/production company) and then that’s it for this one.  CW entry Vampire Diaries looks like it could be heading into its final season, and its hard to gauge the low-rated entries from that network like iZombie and The 100.  They still have a ways to go before getting to a syndication friendly count of episodes, so it will depend on if the network can find room on its schedule to keep them going.  The continued survival of the “ratings noise” cable entries like The Expanse, Scream, The Shannara Chronicles, and Salem depends heavily on how much international backing they have.

Renewed: Most of these shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.  FOX’s Gotham is practically guaranteed to survive into a fourth season because that gets it to a syndication friendly count of episodes.  Some of the shows in this category, especially the streaming service entries like Sense8, Between, and, Powers, are hard to gauge because I do not see any performance numbers.  Others like Dark Matter and Killjoys hinge heavily on their international partnerships and how well they perform up in the other countries they air.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.  The Walking Dead and Fear the Walking Dead are both set for several more years at least, despite all the grumblings about the former’s season finale.  Game of Thrones is a lock to last through its intended conclusion which is currently targeted for its eighth year, though don’t be surprised if HBO doesn’t try to stretch that out.  The Flash will race right into a fourth year after next season because that gets it to a syndication friendly count of episodes and Arrow should be sticking around for a while as well.

Following is the full list which gives a snapshot of all the currently airing and returning sci fi / fantasy shows with their renewal / cancellation prospects. This is sorted by the Hit List Status (see definitions below) then by series name.

Links are to the show pages on this site where status updates and season to date numbers have been updated through May 5th.

Metric Definitions:

Hit List Status: Category indicating the show’s cancellation/renewal prospects.

Cancelled/Ending: This includes cancelled shows from the current season as shows that are in or headed into their final seasons.  Mini-series that have wrapped their runs will be included here as well.

Cancellation Likely: These shows have seriously underperformed in their current season and appear surely headed to cancellation.

On the Bubble: These shows have delivered moderately low numbers which could put their renewal chances in jeopardy.

Renewal Possible: These shows may not be top performers, but are currently doing well enough that renewal looks like a decent possibility.

Renewal Likely: These shows have performed well enough so far in their current season that a renewal seems almost assured.

Renewed but Struggling:  This category captures those shows that have received a renewal notice, but they struggled in their current seasons and could likely be facing cancellation when they return.

Renewed: These shows performed well enough in their latest season to receive the renewal nod and should continue for another season if they hold steady.

Unassailable: These are the shows that face no chance of cancellation in their current/upcoming season and likely beyond that as well.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled (which are more granular than the Hit List Status above). From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 delayed viewing numbers for the days that data is available.