Cancellation Watch: FOX Shows Like Lucifer and Sleepy Hollow Could Start Slipping in the Scorecard

By | April 1, 2016

lucifer-fox-cancelledThe rankings in the broadcast network scorecard remained mostly the same this week and FOX’s Lucifer even improved by one slot to Number 6.  But that was actually more a factor of ABC’s Once Upon A Time slipping due to its declining numbers than Lucifer improving its performance.  And that FOX show along with Sleepy Hollow–both still awaiting word on renewal–will start slipping on this chart in the coming weeks.  That is because their network’s powerhouse show Empire returned this week (it will be factored into these numbers starting with the next set of rankings) and also because American Idol has been skewing FOX’s results up in 2016.  The Fall of 2015 was an unquestionable disaster for the network, but its prospects have improved during the second half of the season.  And because of that, the gap from the network’s average will continue to grow for declining or poorly performing shows like Lucifer and Sleepy Hollow.  How the network will factor that in when making their decisions in the coming month (the 2016-17 schedule is due in May) remains to be seen.  And I still think Lucifer has a chance if it doesn’t sink any further.  Sleepy Hollow is more of a question since it is at all-time lows, and you have to believe that the network is considering its options and looking closely at its pilots to see if it has something they believe will pull a larger audience next season.  But then the recent renewal favor has worked in favor of veteran shows, so don’t count that one out just yet.  I consider both it and Lucifer Call to Action shows at the moment, and fans need to make as much noise as possible on the social networks to support them.

The scorecard ranks all of the broadcast net sci fi / fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s 2016 season to date average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through March 30th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg 2016 Net Avg Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 (1) The X-Files (O) FOX 3.17 1.45 1.71 4.90 Low
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 1.39 0.65 0.75 2.31 Renewed
3 (3) Arrow (O) CW 0.99 0.65 0.35 1.66 Renewed
4 (4) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.93 0.65 0.28 1.64 Renewed
5 (5) Supergirl CBS 1.72 1.54 0.17 2.65 Low
6 (7) Lucifer FOX 1.54 1.45 0.09 2.81 Moderate
7 (6) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.46 1.37 0.09 2.52 Renewed
8 (8) Supernatural (O) CW 0.72 0.65 0.07 1.23 Renewed
9 (9) Gotham FOX 1.47 1.45 0.02 2.63 Renewed
10 (10) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.30 1.37 -0.07 2.36 Renewed
11 (11) The 100 (O) CW 0.55 0.65 -0.10 0.95 Renewed
12 (12) iZombie (O) CW 0.54 0.65 -0.10 0.85 Renewed
13 (13) Angel from Hell (O) CBS 1.42 1.54 -0.12 1.90 Cancelled
14 (14) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.51 0.65 -0.14 0.99 Renewed
15 (15) Limitless (O) CBS 1.39 1.54 -0.15 2.49 Moderate
16 (16) Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.21 1.40 -0.19 2.13 Cancelled
17 (17) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.25 1.45 -0.20 2.00 Medium
18 (18) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.41 0.65 -0.24 0.78 Renewed
19 (19) Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.05 1.45 -0.40 1.89 Renewed
20 (20) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.92 1.40 -0.48 1.71 Medium
21 (21) Agent Carter (O) ABC 0.80 1.37 -0.57 1.43 Medium
22 (22) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.84 1.45 -0.61 1.52 High
23 (23) You Me and the Apocalypse NBC 0.70 1.40 -0.70 n/a Elevated
24 (24) Galavant (O) ABC 0.64 1.37 -0.73 0.85 Moderate
25 (25) Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.45 -0.74 1.24 High
26 (26) Second Chance (O) (F) FOX 0.65 1.45 -0.81 0.90 High

The cable scorecard is more subjective than the broadcast net version because it is not as easy (or useful) to compile network averages for the cable channels. So this is ranked based on the Cancellation Alert status of these shows from least to most likely to get cancelled.

Cable Scorecard based on ratings through March 30th (metric definitions below):

Series Net Std Avg Prior Yr Avg Var Cancel Alert
The Walking Dead AMC 6.46 7.37 -0.91 Renewed
Into the Badlands AMC 1.79 n/a n/a Renewed
American Horror Story FX 1.49 1.91 -0.42 Renewed
The Librarians TNT 0.52 0.92 -0.39 Renewed
Shadowhunters Free 0.42 n/a n/a Renewed
Teen Wolf MTV 0.41 0.49 -0.08 Renewed
Colony USA 0.38 n/a n/a Renewed
Doctor Who BBCA 0.37 n/a n/a Renewed
Z Nation (O) (F) Syfy 0.33 0.48 -0.15 Renewed
The Magicians Syfy 0.30 n/a n/a Renewed
The Expanse Syfy 0.21 n/a n/a Renewed
Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 n/a n/a Renewed
Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.15 0.00 Renewed
Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.10 n/a n/a Renewed
Slasher Chill 0.02 n/a n/a Low
The Shannara Chronicles MTV 0.39 n/a n/a Moderate
Damien A&E 0.22 n/a n/a Moderate
Beowulf Esq 0.04 n/a n/a Moderate
The Leftovers HBO 0.33 0.77 -0.44 Final Season
Lost Girl Syfy 0.11 0.20 -0.09 Final Season
Bitten Syfy 0.10 0.20 -0.10 Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Broadcast Network Scorecard:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

2016 Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average for 2016 only based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  Note the the post NFL Championship debut of The X-Files is not included in FOX’s averages because it is non-representative of normal Prime Time performance and it skews the numbers too much

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Cable Scorecard:

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Prior Yr Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average from its prior season (if applicable) based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and its Prior Year average as defined above.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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