Cancellation Watch: Can Galavant Beat the Odds Again? You, Me, and The Apocalypse is Not Terminal Yet. Plus the Weekly Ratings Roundup

By | February 2, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

galavant-abc-cancelledOn Sunday night, ABC’s Galavant saw a slight improvement to its ratings (after a series low the prior week) as it pulled a 0.6 score based on the overnights for the 18-48 demographic with 2.2 million total viewers. But that only took it from the sub-basement to the basement as far as broadcast network shows this season.  Galavant is currently at historically low ratings for a Big Four broadcast network show (though amazingly, ABC’s cancelled Wicked City did even worse), and seems almost certain to be cancelled based solely on its ratings numbers (it hasn’t seen much in the way of DVR gains either).  But then that was the general consensus during the show’s first season when it bowed to tepid numbers and then went down from there.  ABC instead granted it a surprise renewal which now has all of us cancellation-predictors wary to make a call on the show during its second year (The TV Grim Reaper and the Cancellation Bear aren’t pegging it as sure to be cancelled either).  It surely seems like it would be hard for the network to justify bringing the show back because it has to be more expensive to produce than the average half hour comedy seeing as it is a period piece and has lavish musical numbers.  It’s also nowhere near the syndication stretch as it only has eighteen half hour episodes under its belt (the network has been airing two eps back-to-back each week).  The show is a ton of fun and has really hit its stride in its second season, but no one is tuning in to see.  ABC could air reruns of Once Upon A Time (the show Galavant is time-sharing with) and get the same numbers or better, so it doesn’t seem like it is worth their while to keep the comedy on the air.  If you were to put my back to the wall, I would say that the show will get cancelled this year.  But I’m not going to guarantee that like I did last season.  And actually, that is a good thing.  It means that the networks are looking beyond the ratings with at least some of their shows, and low Nielsen numbers do not always assure cancellation (though they still do more often than not).  I still don’t like Galavant‘s chances of beating the odds a second time, but I’m keeping it at a Moderate Cancellation Alert level where it will still until we hear the final word on its fate (likely in May just before the upfronts).

Last Thursday, NBC’s new (and poorly promoted) series You, Me, and the Apocalypse debuted with a tepid 1.2 rating and 4.9 million total viewers.  That’s better than Heroes Reborn was doing in the same timeslot of late, but still pretty low numbers.  But I’m not predicting that it gets kicked to the curb like FOX did with Second Chance (which was cast to Fridays for a burn-off run), because You, Me, and the Apocalypse comes from a partnership that NBC has with the British Sky channel which means that it is not as expensive for the network.  If it can keep from slipping too much more, then NBC might consider keeping it around because its plugs up a difficult hour at a lower price tag (Heroes Reborn was certainly a costly show to produce).  Of course, CBS ran a repeat this last Thursday and ABC’s powerhouse lineup has not returned you, so You, Me, and the Apocalypse pulled low numbers against less competition.  But if it can hold above a 1.0 score for the rest of its run, I would say it has a chance of returning for another round of episodes.  Its ratings over the next few weeks will give a better gauge of that, though.

On Friday, The CW’s Vampire Diaries and The Originals returned from hiatus on their new nights and managed to hold steady with their Thursday ratings in Fall.  The move worked well for the network because mew entry Legends of Tomorrow is pulling much better numbers on Thursdays now and the two veteran shows will help plug up Friday nights.  They are both likely headed into their final seasons anyway with Vampire Diaries probably getting a shortened eighth year to wrap up all its storylines and The Originals getting the same or perhaps a full season before they head off to their syndication runs.  Or perhaps the parent show gets absorbed into the spin-off and they see how much mileage they can get out of that.  In any case, Vampire Diaries seems almost certainly on its way out by next year, and The Originals may or may not have some life left after that.

I covered the ratings results for the early week shows plus the broadcast network and cable scorecards at this link.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday January 25th thru Sunday January 31st (metric definitions below):

(Updated for the broadcast network and cable Top 25 chart activity)

Gotham FOX Mon 1/25 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.5 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus, returns February 29th.

Supergirl CBS Mon 1/25 8 PM
Rating: 1.8 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.9 | StD Rating: 1.9 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It held steady with the prior week and is still doing okay among CBS shows.  If it keeps flying at this level or higher then it should be okay.

Chart Activity: This show was at Number 11 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic (up from Number 13) and at Number 15 based on total viewers (up from Number 16).

The X-Files FOX Mon 1/25 8 PM
Rating: 3.2 | % Chng PW: -47.5% | Tot Viewers (MM): 9.7 | StD Rating: 4.7 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It dropped obviously from the debut episode which had the NFL Championship as its lead-in, but these are still monster ratings for a scripted show in Prime Time these days.  If it holds anywhere near here, FOX will be trying to get another “limited run” in the works for next season.

Chart Activity: This show as at Number 7 in the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings, down from Number 2 the prior week.  It was at Number 2 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic (up from Number 3) and it was at Number 6 based on total viewers (down from Number 4).

Lucifer CBS Mon 1/25 9 PM
Rating: 2.4 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.2 | StD Rating: 2.4 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show had quite an impressive debut behind its X-Files lead-in.  If it can hold close to these levels, then a second season is assured.

Chart Activity: This show bowed at Number 4 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and at Number 24 based on total viewers.

The Magicians Syfy Mon 1/25 9 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low

The two hour premiere for this show bested the “preview” airing it had after the third night of Childhood’s End back in December.  And these are some of the best numbers a Syfy show as seen in a while.  At this point, a second season looks likely, though we will have to see how it tracks in the coming weeks.

The Flash CW Tue 1/26 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: +7.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show continues to perform very well for the fifth place network and a third season is all but guaranteed at this point.

Chart Activity: This show made into the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic at the Number 22 slot, in part because CBS was running so many repeats last week.  I’m pretty sure that’s the first time it has been in the Top 25 this season.

Agent Carter ABC Tue 1/26 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.9 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

No improvement from its debut, and it would be very hard for ABC to justify bringing this show back at these levels.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 1/26 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.9 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus, returns March 8th.

iZombie CW Tue 1/26 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.6 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Preempted, again.  It returns this week with a new episode.

Shadowhunters Free Tue 1/26 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: +9.8% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This show improved from the prior week and looks to be on track for a second season renewal.

Teen Wolf MTV Tue 1/26 9 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: +12.8% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.9 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved slightly from the prior week, and it has already been renewed for a sixth season.

Limitless(R) CBS Tue 1/26 10 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.6 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It was a repeat, again.  And it gets preempted this week.  It finally returns with a new episode next week, but I’m guessing the ratings will suffer.

The Shannara Chronicles MTV Tue 1/26 10 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: +58.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low

I’m behind on watching this show so I don’t know if there was a special guest star appearance, but this one saw a nice boost to its ratings.  I believe it can make it to a second season if it holds around these levels.

The Expanse Syfy Tue 1/26 10 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: +47.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved from the prior week and may see even more of a bump with its season finale this week.  It has already been renewed for a second season.

Arrow CW Wed 1/27 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.8 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show continues to perform consistently well for the fifth place network and a fifth season is all but assured at this point.

Supernatural CW Wed 1/27 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.9 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show continues to hold steady and will be back for a twelfth season as long as the cast and crew are up for it.

Star Wars Rebels DXD Wed 1/27 9:30 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: -6.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.5 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held mostly steady, and it has already been renewed for a third season.

American Horror Story FX Wed 1/27 10 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.5 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Season ended.  Returns in Fall 2016 for its sixth season.

Legends of Tomorrow CW Thu 1/28 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: -8.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.8 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It dropped slightly from its premiere, but it is still pulling good numbers for a CW show.

You Me and the Apocalypse NBC Thu 1/28 8 PM
Rating: 1.2 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.9 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Net Avg: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Not an impressive debut, but NBC has an international partnership with Sky on this show which could keep it around.  More on this one above.

The 100 CW Thu 1/28 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: -14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It dropped one tick from its debut, but it is still looking better than last year’s numbers.  If it can hold here or improve some, a fourth season is still possible.

Angel from Hell CBS Thu 1/28 9:30 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.7 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It held steady with the prior week and I would say that it is barely clinging on at these levels.

Chart Activity: This show sneaked back into the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic at the Number 24 slot.  It did not make it into the Top 25 based on total viewers.

Colony USA Thu 1/28 10 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 17.9% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.2 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low

It improved from the prior week and looks to be building its audience.  At this levels, it has a decent chance for a second season.

Vampire Diaries CW Fri 1/29 8 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.2 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

The move to Fridays worked as it held steady with its last Thursday episode that aired in Fall (as did The Originals).  More on this one above.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Fri 1/29 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: High

On hiatus, returns February 5th (when it shifts to Fridays).

The Originals CW Fri 1/29 9 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

The move to Fridays worked as it held steady with its last Thursday episode that aired in Fall (as did Vampire Diaries).  More on this one above.

Second Chance FOX Wed 1/27 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: -30.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.2 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: High

The numbers dropped with its move to Friday, as expected.  It is basically here to burn off its episodes before heading to the Network Executioner.

Grimm NBC Fri 1/29 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.8 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

With its mid-season return it slipped from its last new episode in Fall, and this show is almost certainly on its last legs.  Fans can only hope that the creative team has some sort of resolution planned for the current season.

Beowulf Esq Sat 1/30 10 PM
Rating: 0.0 | % Chng PW: -42.9% | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.1 | Net Avg: 0.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It slipped to a 0.04 rating on Saturday which is pretty low, but this show’s fate is more heavily dictated by its performance in its home country of Britain.

Galavant ABC Sun 1/31 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: +20.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.2 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This show is a ton of fun, but nobody is watching.  Is there any chance it can beat the odds again?  More on this one above.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 1/31 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus, returns March 6th.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 1/31 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.2 | StD Rating: 6.7 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

On hiatus, returns February 14th.

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 1/31 9:30 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.2 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

On hiatus, no scheduled return yet.

Be sure keep an eye out for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site. You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports programming and non-repeats.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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