Cancellation Watch: Despite the Recent Ratings Drop, Supergirl Still Looks Good in the Broadcast Net Scorecard

By | November 25, 2015

supergirl-cbs-cancelledCBS series Supergirl dropped to a season low 1.5 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic on Monday, but based on the show’s season to date average it is still doing okay.  And we shouldn’t worry about that drop too much anyway because the CBS CEO has said that the overnights “mean nothing”.  I wonder what his position would be if Supergirl was pulling the same overnights as The Walking Dead?  In any case, that show’s relative standing looks okay as it remains at the Number 2 slot in our broadcast network scorecard (though it does need to get over its holiday week slump and at least fly even with its network’s average).  There was a little bit of shuffling among other shows in the ranks since the last time, but that just involved movement of one slot up or down and it was mostly in the lower half of the list.

This scorecard ranks all of the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows ratings performance vs. their network’s season to date average for non-sports, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping below are getting into iffy territory.

Here is the full scorecard for shows that have aired through November 23rd:

Rank Prior Rank Series Network Std Avg Net Avg Variance Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 1 The Flash (O) CW 1.43 0.61 0.82 2.30 Low
2 2 Supergirl CBS 2.06 1.60 0.46 3.80 Low
3 3 Arrow (O) CW 1.00 0.61 0.39 1.50 Low
4 4 Supernatural (O) CW 0.73 0.61 0.12 1.23 Low
5 5 Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.64 1.67 (0.03) 2.71 Low
6 8 Limitless (O) CBS 1.57 1.60 (0.03) 2.77 Low
7 6 iZombie (O) CW 0.57 0.61 (0.04) 0.00 Low
7 6 Vampire Diaries (O) CW 0.57 0.61 (0.04) 1.10 Low
9 9 Gotham FOX 1.50 1.60 (0.10) 2.70 Low
10 11 The Originals (O) CW 0.41 0.61 (0.20) 0.84 Low
11 10 Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.45 1.67 (0.22) 2.58 Low
12 12 The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.26 1.60 (0.34) 2.00 Elevated
13 14 Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.13 1.60 (0.47) 2.20 Elevated
14 13 Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.28 1.76 (0.48) 2.42 Medium
15 15 Sleepy Hollow (O) FOX 0.91 1.60 (0.69) 1.67 High
16 16 Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.98 1.76 (0.79) 1.85 Moderate
17 17 Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.60 (0.89) 1.32 High

Metric Definitions

Rank: Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).

Prior Rank: Prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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