Cancellation Watch: The Flash Remains in the Lead on the Broadcast Network Scorecard

By | November 18, 2015

The-Flash-season-2Not much change in the Broadcast Network scorecard from last week as the superheroes remain at the top.  The Flash held on to its lead for a second week in a row with Supergirl remaining in second as that show appears to have leveled off its decline (its overnights improved slightly on Monday to a 1.8 rating).  Arrow and Supernatural round out the shows performing above their network averages, and I expect these four to remain fairly stable through the rest of Fall.  Note that I have added an (O) to the scorecard following the series title to indicate whether a show is owned/produced by its network and/or a sister studio.  These are the shows that a network will have a greater stake in and the ones it will want to keep around as long as the ratings are not too low.  Also, I have added an (F) to indicate if the show airs on Friday (Grimm is the only one at the moment).  These shows will have lower ratings expectations because they air on a low viewership night.

This scorecard ranks all of the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows ratings performance vs. their network’s season to date average for non-sports, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping below are getting into iffy territory.

Here is the full scorecard for shows that have aired through November 16th:

Rank Prior Rank Series Network Std Avg Net Avg Variance Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 1 The Flash (O) CW 1.43 0.61 0.82 2.30 Low
2 2 Supergirl CBS 2.20 1.62 0.58 4.40 Low
3 3 Arrow (O) CW 0.98 0.61 0.37 1.50 Low
4 4 Supernatural (O) CW 0.73 0.61 0.12 1.30 Low
5 5 Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.64 1.66 (0.02) 2.73 Low
6 7 iZombie (O) CW 0.58 0.61 (0.03) 0.00 Low
6 7 Vampire Diaries (O) CW 0.58 0.61 (0.03) 1.10 Low
8 6 Limitless (O) CBS 1.59 1.62 (0.03) 2.80 Low
9 9 Gotham FOX 1.51 1.63 (0.12) 2.70 Low
10 10 Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.47 1.66 (0.19) 2.60 Low
11 11 The Originals (O) CW 0.42 0.61 (0.20) 0.85 Low
12 12 The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.26 1.63 (0.38) 2.03 Elevated
13 13 Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.30 1.77 (0.47) 2.42 Medium
14 14 Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.16 1.63 (0.48) 2.28 Elevated
15 16 Sleepy Hollow (O) FOX 0.93 1.63 (0.70) 1.68 High
16 15 Grimm (O) (F) NBC 1.00 1.77 (0.77) 1.90 Moderate
17 17 Minority Report (O) FOX 0.74 1.63 (0.89) 1.38 High

Metric Definitions

Rank: Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).

Prior Rank: Prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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