Cancellation Watch: Any Hope for The Messengers Appears to be All but Gone

By | May 5, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Thursday Apr 30th thru Monday May 4th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 4/30 8 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: -16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.2 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

A new low point for this show.  I continue to believe that next season will be its last.

Olympus Syfy Thu 4/30 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Its number are low but consistent and its doing no worse than 12 Monkeys did.  Seeing as this one is likely cheap to produce, maybe it does have a slight chance.

Dig USA Thu 4/30 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Even if this show does have international financing backing it, I’m doubting whether USA would want it back on its schedule for another season with these numbers.

Grimm NBC Fri 5/1 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: -10.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.2 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped to a season low as limps out of its fourth season.

The Messengers CW Fri 5/1 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

No improvement for this one and time is running out. It looks like a goner as originally assumed. (More on this one below)

Outlander Starz Sat 5/2 9 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It remains steady and the numbers still look good for a Starz show.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 5/3 8 PM
Rating: 1.7 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.2 | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

No improvement from last week, but it again tied for first place on Sunday among the broadcast networks which shows just how much the ratings slump is hurting them this Spring.

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 5/3 9 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one wrapped up its first season on a low note.  If it doesn’t improve next year, it may be two seasons and out for this show.

Game of Thrones HBO Sun 5/3 9 PM
Rating: 3.6 | % Chng PW: +2.9% | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.8 | StD Rating: 3.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved one tick from last week and blew away everything else on television on Sunday as this show continues to reign supreme.

Penny Dreadful SHOW Sun 5/3 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.3 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It premiered down from where it was in its first season, but perhaps these numbers will be good enough. It will be wait on see on this one.

Salem WGN Sun 5/3 10 PM
Rating: 0.1 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.3 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It remains low, but I believe these are still good enough numbers for WGN because this show likely has international financing backing it.

The Originals CW Mon 5/4 8 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It didn’t improve from last week, but at least it’s not sinking any further.

Gotham FOX Mon 5/4 8 PM
Rating: 1.7 | % Chng PW: +13.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.9 | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries)  It improved for its season finale, but these numbers are still a pale shadow of what the show had back in Fall.

the-messengers-cw-cancelledOn the Hot Seat:  The CW’s late season entry The Messengers appeared to have arrived DOA when the network delayed its debut to mid-April and scheduled it to air on low-viewership Fridays.  And since its premiere, it has done little ratings-wise to convince the network to keep it around.  It bowed with only a 0.3 score in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights, tying it for the worst debut ever of a broadcast network scripted show.  Since then, it has slipped to a 0.2 rating rating for the two subsequent weeks it has aired.  Had the show at least maintained its 0.3 rating, then maybe The CW would have at least batted around the idea of keeping it as a Summer entry like they are doing with low-rated Beauty and the Beast.  But at its current levels, and with scheduling decisions being made now prior to the upfronts next week, I’m thinking the network will not give the show any more time.  I’m guessing it gets cut from the schedule when The CW releases their 2015-16 slate later this week or early next with no consideration of keeping it around for Summer or as a mid-season entry.  It’s always hard to say for sure with the unpredictable fifth place network, but I am raising the Cancellation Alert on The Messengers to Elevated now, and fully expect it to get the ax by next week.

I will post the results for The Returned when they are available later today or early tomorrow.  Be sure keep an eye out for that and all the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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