Cancellation Watch: With One Episode Left for Forever this Season, will That be it’s Last?

By | April 23, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday Apr 13th thru Wednesday Apr 15th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Note: The Monday broadcast network shows were covered in the previous Cancellation Watch post

The Returned A&E Mon 4/20 10 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: -25.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.9 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.8 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It’s numbers dropped which is not good.  It will get the ax if the international financing is not there backing it up.

The Flash CW Tue 4/21 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | % Chng PW: -7.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.8 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped from last week but is still doing well for The CW considering how hard the ratings slump has hit that network this past month.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 4/21 9 PM
Rating: 1.6 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It held steady and the spin-off talks continue to heat up.  It’s chances are looking much better.

iZombie CW Tue 4/21 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: -25.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped from last week, but it is still above where The 100 was at this time last year in the same hour.  Still looking good for renewal.

Forever ABC Tue 4/21 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.0 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

In its on again week, it held steady with its last new episode, though that’s steadily low.  It gets preempted again next week before coming back May 5th for its season (and likely series) finale.  (More on this one below).

Person of Interest CBS Tue 4/21 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It was preempted (again!), but next week returns for the first of its last two Season 4 eps.  And the Season 5 renewal is still looking good.

Arrow CW Wed 4/22 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: +12.5% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.7 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It improved from last week and will likely trend up as it wraps up its current season.

Supernatural CW Wed 4/22 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: +16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) A slight improvement, though Wednesdays have not been kind to this show this Spring.  Will next season be its last?

forever-abc-cancelledOn the Hot Seat:  On Tuesday, ABC’s Forever pulled a 1.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights with four million total viewers.  That’s right about the level where the show has been hovering since early in Fall and there is no more time for a ratings surge as its next episode will be its Season 1 finale.  Though fans have to wait as the show is preempted next week (again!) and then returns on May 5th for what could be its swansong.  This show’s numbers slipped to the low 1’s early last Fall, but ABC still elected to give it a full season order touting that it did well when delayed viewing was factored in.  And it is true that it has seen about an 80% lift in its numbers to a 2.0 ratings average based on the Live+7 stats (meaning the episode was watched within a week of its live broadcast).  The full season pickup was unexpected and suggested that the networks (ABC at least) really were paying more attention to delayed viewing numbers like they promised.  Maybe they were, maybe they weren’t (delayed viewing does not attract advertisers to a show), but since mid-season ABC seems to have given up on Forever.  It has been subjected to an inordinate amount of repeats and preemptions and hasn’t aired more than two new episodes in a row since October.  So maybe ABC had some early hope that the show would capitalize on its initial good word of mouth and start building an audience, but when that didn’t happen they lost faith in it.  Or it’s also possible that the network didn’t have enough stand-ins waiting in the wings and just decided to ride the show out for the season.  In any case, it has essentially become schedule fodder since January, plugging in that Tuesday 10 PM timeslot when the network didn’t have a special or something else to cover the hour.  Forever has developed a devoted fanbase and they are currently active in lobbying the network to bring the show back for a second season.  But at this point I just don’t see that happening.  The delayed viewing just doesn’t make a strong enough case and the scheduling hopscotch suggests ABC has given up on it and just decided to use it to plug up air space.  I raised its Cancellation Alert level yesterday to Elevated in the latest edition of the Power Rankings as I am pretty certain at this point it will be one season and done for the show.  The fans should still try to make some noise, because it can’t hurt.  But it certainly looks like forever for this show will be no more than twenty two episodes.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

2 thoughts on “Cancellation Watch: With One Episode Left for Forever this Season, will That be it’s Last?

  1. Debbie

    Please ABC, don not cancel Forever! Awesome show with interesting story lines..please renew.

    Reply
  2. mona myers

    Please tell me your not going to be like NBC and not give this show a chance. Reruns, skipping weeks, long hiatus, how do you expect people to get interested? Sounds like Dracula on NBC! You networks are all alike. 18-49 demographic. THEY are not the only people in the T V watching audience. This is a good story line, and great actors. Please think twice about cancellation

    Reply

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