The DVR Skew: iZombie Enters Ahead of The Originals and The 100, Some Live+7 Numbers for 12 Monkeys and Helix

By | April 15, 2015

Tracking the ratings for the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows factoring in DVR viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast (data is on a three week delay).

izombie-cw-cancelledI now have two weeks worth of Live+7 data now for The CW’s mid-season entry iZombie, and things continue to look good for that show.  Not only has it been able to hold onto respectable overnight ratings for the fifth place network, it has seen decent gains from delayed viewing.  And while it enters this list near the bottom, it is ahead of both The Originals and The 100 which have both already been renewed.  If iZombie can just hold steady or at least not drop too much over the next few weeks, that one can almost certainly expect a second season renewal.  As for the other shows on the list below, there hasn’t been much movement since my last post, though Agents of SHIELD and The Last Man on Earth traded places again.  That has more to do with the latter show’s falling numbers, though, than any improvements from AoS which has continued to post mediocre ratings this Spring.  Still, The Last Man on Earth has already received a renewal notice and things are looking better for Agents of SHIELD at this point.

TV by the Numbers posted Live+7 data for the cable channels this week (the actual data if for the week of March 23rd thru 29th) which gives us a look at Syfy’s 12 Monkeys and Helix.  The latter show was in the Number 1 slot and the former in Number 3 for the Top 25 percentage gainers from DVR viewing among the cable channels.  And while that may sound somewhat impressive, when you see that Helix went from a 0.1 score to a 0.3 and 12 Monkeys went from a 0.2 to a 0.5 it rather deflates the accomplishment.  As I said in yesterday’s Cancellation Watch post, those are only passable numbers for live broadcasts and these two have not been showing up in the cable Top 25 based on the Live+3 numbers, so this isn’t much of a win for them.  It is true that 12 Monkeys did get the greenlight for a second, but I am not expecting Helix for come back for another year as well.  Despite all that, I am hoping that TV by the Numbers keeps posting the cable Live+7 numbers, though at this late point in the season I will not try to put together any sort of ranking for those shows.

Here are the full rankings for the broadcast network shows based on their Live+7 ratings averages (metric definitions below the chart):

Rank Prior Rank Series Network Avg Over-night Rtg Live+7 Days Tracked Avg Live+7 Rtg Live+7 % Gain Cancellation Alert
1 1 Gotham FOX 2.3 18 3.9 69.0% Renewed
2 2 Once Upon A Time ABC 2.3 16 3.5 48.3% Low
3 4 Agents of SHIELD ABC 1.6 14 3.0 77.3% Moderate
4 3 The Last Man on Earth FOX 1.7 5 2.9 63.3% Renewed
5 5 Sleepy Hollow FOX 1.5 18 2.6 66.2% Renewed
6 6 Person of Interest CBS 1.6 14 2.5 55.7% Low
7 7 Agent Carter ABC 1.4 6 2.4 62.5% Medium
8 8 The Flash CW 1.4 12 2.3 68.3% Renewed
9 9 Grimm NBC 1.2 15 2.2 85.2% Renewed
10 10 Galavant ABC 1.3 2 2.2 51.7% High
11 11 Forever ABC 1.1 16 2.0 79.9% Medium
12 12 Resurrection ABC 1.3 9 1.7 66.0% High
13 13 Arrow CW 1.0 6 1.7 70.7% Renewed
14 14 Constantine NBC 0.9 12 1.6 79.2% High
15 15 Vampire Diaries CW 0.8 15 1.4 87.4% Renewed
16 16 Supernatural CW 0.8 9 1.4 75.7% Renewed
17 n/a iZombie CW 0.7 2 1.3 66.7% Low
18 17 The Originals CW 0.6 12 1.1 86.1% Renewed
19 18 The 100 CW 0.5 13 0.9 75.8% Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Live+7 Rating:  This is the rating in the 18-49 demographic that factors in the viewing from the live broadcast plus DVR viewing up to seven days later.

Avg Overnight Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the final overnights for live broadcast.

Live+7 Days Tracked: The days that the Live+7 data was available for a show in the Live+7 Top 25 charts published by TV by The Numbers.

Avg Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 numbers for the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).

Live+7 % Gain: The average Live+7 rating percent gain from the average overnight rating based on the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).  The more datapoints available in the Live+7 Days Tracked, the more accurate this will be and the closer the math will work.  Shows with fewer datapoints will have larger discrepancies.

Cancellation Alert: My estimation on a show’s chances of being cancelled.  The five levels from least to most likely to be cancelled are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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