Cancellation Watch: Dig Drops as It Digs a Hole for Itself in the Ratings

By | March 17, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Thursday Mar 12th thru Monday Mar 16th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 3/12 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.3 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It returned from repeats at a series low, but I expect it to improve in the coming weeks.

Dig USA Thu 3/12 10 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: -33.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It dropped notably from last week and may not be able to climb out of the hole it is digging for itself.  (More on this one below)

Grimm NBC Fri 3/13 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.9 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Repeat. Resumes new episodes this Friday.

12 Monkeys Syfy Fri 3/13 9 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady with the prior week and received its renewal notice.  Now its numbers need to start improving if the show wants to make it to a third season.

Helix Syfy Fri 3/13 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: +100.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

The good news: it’s ratings improved by 100% from the prior week.  The bad news: the prior week (and several weeks before that) it barely registered with only one tenth of a ratings point.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 3/15 8 PM
Rating: 1.8 | % Chng PW: -14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.8 | StD Rating: 2.4 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It slipped to near its season low, but it was the top rated show on the broadcast networks on Sunday.  So it’s still doing okay.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 3/15 9 PM
Rating: 7.0 | % Chng PW: -4.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.8 | StD Rating: 7.3 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped a bit but still handily beat everything else on television for the week based on its ratings in the 18-49 demo.

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 3/15 9 PM
Rating: 1.5 | % Chng PW: -21.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 1.9 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It continues to slip, but no more than the other Sunday shows.  For now it still looks okay.

The Originals CW Mon 3/16 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: +20.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.3 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved from last week and I expect it hold about here or maybe slightly higher through the rest of the season.

Gotham (R) FOX Mon 3/16 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.4 | StD Rating: 2.3 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Repeat. Resumes new episodes April 13th.

dig-usa-cancelledOn the Hot Seat: USA’s new “limited run event” series Dig debuted to only modest ratings two weeks ago and last week its numbers slipped to a 0.4 rating in the 18-49 demographics based on the overnights with 1.4 million total viewers.  That show might have been able to survive if it had remained around the 0.6 level it had for its debut, but USA typically looks for better numbers and I can’t see it surviving with a 0.4 score.  That said, there is the possibility that the show has an international financing deal that makes it profitable enough for USA that they decide to keep it on the air (that is what helped convince CBS to air a second season of Summer entry Extant after that one pulled low numbers last year).  I don’t know if such a deal is in place for this show, though, so for now I am going to move it to a Moderate Cancellation Alert level.  And I will probably keep it there knowing that any hopes it has for renewal will hinge upon that international financing.   And for those asking how a limited series can be cancelled, check in with the fans of Syfy’s “limited run event” series Ascension which will not be going forward after wrapping up on a huge cliffhanger.  That “limited run” label is just a way to fool viewers into believing the show will end with some sort of resolution.

I will post the results for The Returned when they are available later today or early tomorrow.  Be sure keep an eye out for that and all the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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