Cancellation Watch: Agent Carter Goes Out Low, Could Its Fate be Tied to Agents of SHIELD?

By | February 27, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Tuesday Feb 24th thru Thursday Feb 26th (analysis and metric definitions below):

The Flash (R) CW Tue 2/24 8 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: -80.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Repeat.  Resumes new episodes March 17th.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 2/24 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Resumes new episodes March 3rd.

Agent Carter ABC Tue 2/24 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | % Chng PW: -7.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.0 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

It dropped from last week which is not the right direction for a season finale.  (More on this one below)

Supernatural CW Tue 2/24 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Preempted. Resumes new episodes March 17th.

Forever ABC Tue 2/24 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

This show has almost certainly become schedule fodder at this point and its chances for a second season continue to fade.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 2/24 10 PM
Rating: 1.7 | % Chng PW: +6.2% | Tot Viewers (MM): 9.6 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show’s numbers have been on the upswing, but now it goes on a two week break, followed by one new episode, followed by another two week break.  Poor scheduling, CBS.

Arrow CW Wed 2/25 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: -8.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.1 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Down from last week, but its still doing well especially considering the current ratings slump.

The 100 CW Wed 2/25 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one keeps flying low and I don’t like its chances for surviving beyond its third season.

Vampire Diaries (R) CW Thu 2/26 8 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: -57.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Resumes new episodes March 12th.

agent-carter-cancelledOn the Hot Seat:  On Tuesday, ABC’s Agent Carter had its season finale but saw its numbers slip to a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic with four million total viewers.  Those are not great numbers, especially for a show that had a fair amount of push (and some decent buzz) going into January.  It has seen some decent gains with delayed viewing (more on that at this link), but I’m still not convinced that the emphasis the broadcast networks have put on those results this season is anything more than lip service.  They want the DVR numbers visible because they mask the continued attrition the networks are seeing in live viewing.  But the sponsors (who provide the revenue that keeps the networks in business) are still focused on the overnight ratings because that is when their commercials are seen.  And the fact is that Agent Carter‘s season to date average rating in the 18-49 demo based on the overnights is only a 1.4 vs. the 1.5 that The Flash is pulling on the fifth place network on the same night.  Of course there’s still the chance that Disney (which owns ABC) will play their trump card and keep the show alive because of its connection to their multi-billion dollar Avengers franchise.  But those guys have their eye focused on the bottom dollar as well, so they may let the numbers dictate the show’s fate.

Ultimately, I believe it comes down to how well Agents of SHIELD does when it returns from hiatus next week.  That one started off its second season struggling in the ratings but then it began to build some momentum at the end of Fall before getting put on a two and a half month haitus.  And seeing as Agent Carter doesn’t seem to have kept its timeslot too warm, it’s hard to say how AoS will fair when it returns.  If ABC feels strong enough about Agents of SHIELD (again, this will be a test of whether they are factoring in DVR results), then I believe there is a good chance they will carry Agent Carter along with it.  But I don’t see AC getting the greenlight for a second season if AoS gets the ax.  For now, I am raising the Cancellation Alert Status on Agent Carter to Medium.  And once we have had a couple of weeks results from Agents of SHIELD‘s return, I believe future for both could come into better focus.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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