Cancellation Watch: American Horror Story Rises for Season Finale, The Flash and Arrow Return Strong for The CW

By | January 23, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Tuesday Jan 20th thru Thursday Jan 22nd (analysis and metric definitions below):

The Flash CW Tue 1/20 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.9 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one returned from hiatus strong and is now building toward its second season. (More on this one below)

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 1/20 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus until March 3rd.

Agent Carter (R) ABC Tue 1/20 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 3.1 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Repeat due to the State of the Union Address, returns next week with a new ep.

Supernatural CW Tue 1/20 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.4 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show returned steady with its season to date average and should hold around this level through the rest of the season.

Forever ABC Tue 1/20 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Preempted due to the State of the Union Address, returns February 3rd with a new ep.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 1/20 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Preempted due to the State of the Union Address, returns February 3rd with a new ep.

Arrow CW Wed 1/21 8 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.1 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Of course people were tuning in to this show to see the resolution for that cliffhanger.  It may drop a tick or two in the coming weeks, but not far. (More on this one below)

The 100 CW Wed 1/21 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show can’t seem to build back its audience, but The CW still saw fit to give it a third season.  Maybe the positive word of mouth will start to draw in more viewers.

American Horror Story FX Wed 1/21 10 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.9 | StD Rating: 1.9 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It ended its fourth season with its rating at half of where it was when it debuted, but the show is still doing well for a basic cable entry.  Don’t be surprised if this show shifts to a more audience friendly story arc for its fifth season, though. (More on this one below)

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 1/22 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It returned down a bit from where it wrapped up in Fall, but it’s still doing well enough that it received its seventh season renewal.  I have to wonder if that will be its last year, though.

american-horror-story-freak-showRatings Results:  FX’s American Horror Story wrapped up its fourth season this week and improved slightly from its penultimate episode to a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 3.3 million total viewers and it won the night among cable shows.  This has been the show’s lowest rated season since its first year, but I wouldn’t count it as struggling because it usually wins out Wednesday nights among cable shows and places in the Top 25 for the week among cable total viewers (well, except for last week).  I did hear some grumbling from the fans and critics about the Freak Show storyline (I gave up on it early, not because it was bad but because its level of dementia exceeded my tolerance), but the advantage this show has is that it resets its story each year.  AHS has already been renewed for a fifth season, and its numbers could jump back up if its next arc proves more popular with viewers.

All of The CW shows returned from their winter hiatuses this week, and the DC superhero entries held steady with the numbers they had at the end of Fall.  On Tuesday, The Flash posted a 1.4 rating in the 18-49 demo with 3.9 million total viewers which might be down from its early Fall highs (and the Arrow crossover ep), but which still counts as stellar numbers for the fifth place network.  On Wednesday, Arrow maintained the same numbers it had with its Fall finale as it posted a 1.1 rating with 3.1 million total viewers.   Of course that one left viewers on a pretty harrowing cliffhanger in December, so it was to be expected that viewers would return to see the consequences of the Arrow / Ra’s al Ghul duel.   The success that The CW has had with its comic book shows has the network looking to dip into that well again, so don’t be surprised if this turns into the DC network pretty soon (and they already have another property from that company coming in March with iZombie, you can see the schedule at this link).

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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