Cancellation Watch: Agent Carter and Galavant Fall in Their Second Week, Are They in Trouble?

By | January 15, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Sunday Jan 11th thru Tuesday Jan 13th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 1/11 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until March 1st

Galavant ABC Sun 1/11 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.1 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

That’s quite a drop from its debut 2.0 score. Maybe it gets a mulligan because it had to contend with The Golden Globes, but it needs to improve next week. (More on this one below)

The Librarians TNT Sun 1/11 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.2 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It slipped a bit on Sunday, but it’s still doing well for a basic cable series and I expected a renewal announcement any day now.

Resurrection ABC Sun 1/11 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.1 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

No resurrection for this one in the ratings as it keeps hitting new lows. It’s upcoming season finale will almost certainly be its swansong.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 1/11 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 7.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

On hiatus until February 8th

The Originals CW Mon 1/12 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 19th

Gotham FOX Mon 1/12 8 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

FOX decided not to air a new episode of this against the College Football National Championship. It returns next week.

Sleepy Hollow (R) FOX Mon 1/12 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

FOX decided not to air a new episode of this against the College Football National Championship. It returns next week.

The Flash CW Tue 1/13 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 20th

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 1/13 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus until March 3rd

Agent Carter ABC Tue 1/13 8 PM
Rating: 1.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.1 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This series debuted soft and now dropped further with its second episode. But early DVR numbers look good, so maybe it still has a chance if the networks really are looking at that. (More on this one below)

Supernatural CW Tue 1/13 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 20th

Forever ABC Tue 1/13 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This one slipped back to match its season low. I’m still thinking ABC will let it finish out the season and then call it quits.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 1/13 10 PM
Rating: 1.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 10.0 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It slipped a tick from its mid-season return (despite delivering one of its best episodes this season), but its still performing well enough in total viewers so it should be okay.

agent-carter-abc-cancelledRatings Drops: The second week of mid-season saw drops across most of the genre shows which have returned thus far and lagging ratings across the broadcast networks in general (is the Spring slump hitting early this year?).  ABC’s mid-season entry Agent Carter slipped to a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 5.1 million total viewers (based on the preliminaries).  That has the show matching Agent of SHIELD‘s season low and at a level that does not look too promising at the moment.  ABC entertainment president Paul Lee stood up for both shows when talking to critics, though, pointing out that Agent Carter saw significant DVR gains in the Live+3 numbers and that AoS has performed very well this season in the Live+7 numbers.  In the past, network renewal/cancellation decisions have been strongly driven by the overnight numbers, but this year they claim they will pay more attention to the delayed viewing.  We will have to see how true that is once the final scheduling decisions are made at the end of the season, but I am sure ABC would like to see better overnight results for both these shows.  Lee was questioned whether the network might feel pressure to keep these two entries on the air because ABC is owned by Disney which also owns Marvel (and they will own you and me pretty soon . . .).  His response was: “Nope, none at all.  This is us. We drive this.”  But he then went on to say “We have ambitions for Marvel in the future.  We love Marvel.”  So basically count that as a politician non-answer.  For the moment, I am leaving Agent Carter at a low Cancellation Alert status.  But I will probably shift that to Moderate if the show does not see any improvement by next week.

As for ABC’s other new entry Galavant, that one took an even bigger hit in the ratings this week as it slipped to a 1.3 score in the 18-49 demo with 4.1 million total viewers.  Now it had to contend with The Golden Globe Awards for the night, so it could rebound next week.  But I’m starting to wonder if ABC didn’t just look at this as a cheep entry to fill up some schedule space for a month while also claiming that they are running less repeats during the season.  As a thirty minute comedy (episodes are airing back-to-back each week), it’s not as expensive to produce as hour long dramas and the ratings demands on it are not too high.  But unless it gets back up closer to its 2.0 debut numbers for its next two airings (its full run is only four weeks), I don’t believe ABC will be inclined to bring this one back for a second round.

The ratings delays continue, but I will get the numbers for American Horror Story on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site Once they become available.  And this Friday offers a pretty full slate with Syfy’s debut of 12 Monkeys plus the return of Helix, and NBC’s Grimm and Constantine return from their Winter breaks (with the latter series shifting to the 8 PM EST hour).  You can see the full mid-season schedule with premiere/return dates at this link.  And be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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