Cancellation Watch: Will The CW Cancel The 100 or One of its Other Low-Rated Shows? Plus TNT’s Legends Gets Renewed

By | December 5, 2014


Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy airing Tuesday Dec 2nd thru Thursday Dec 4th (analysis and metric definitions below):

The Flash CW Tue 12/2 8 PM
Rating: 1.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

The first part of the Arrow/Flash team-up got this show back up to its early season highs. Not that it has ever really sunk that low this season.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 12/2 9 PM
Rating: 1.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.4 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

That’s the best numbers this show has seen since its second episode of the season. Is it starting to win back its fans?

Supernatural CW Tue 12/2 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.3 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show held steady which meant that it did not take advantage of its lead-in from The Flash. But it’s still pulling solid numbers for The CW

Forever ABC Tue 12/2 10 PM
Rating: 1.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.2 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

A nice—if small—bump for this one. Now it needs to keep working its way up to where it is at least pulling a 1.5 score in the overnights. Fortunately ABC gave it the full season to try and meet that level.

Person of Interest (R) CBS Tue 12/2 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.1 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show is in repeats until December 16th which will stifle the momentum it was starting to build.

Arrow CW Wed 12/3 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.9 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

The cross-over with The Flash brought this one to a series high.  Expect more team-ups between the two shows.

The 100 CW Wed 12/3 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.9 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

It held onto its 0.6 rating despite taking a break last week.  Maybe fan efforts on the social media sites are starting to attract some new viewers to the show?  (More on this one below)

American Horror Story FX Wed 12/3 10 PM
Rating: 1.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.3 | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It dropped to a season low, but it still beat all cable shows for the night and its still performing strong overall.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 12/4 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries)  It dropped back down after seeing slightly better numbers.  I still think this one gets a final season renewal and then its done.

the-100-cancelledOn the Hot Seat: The good news for The CW’s The 100 is that its numbers stayed at a 0.6 rating in the 18-49 demographic this week with 1.9 million total viewers. The bad news is that it continues to lag well behind its lead-in from Arrow which continues to work against its chances of surviving to a third season. But then a little bit more good news is that it airs on the fifth place broadcast network which is generally more patient with its shows (though I know that fans of last season’s cancelled Star-Crossed and The Tomorrow People may take issue with that statement). Currently, The 100 is the third lowest rated scripted show on The CW (out of the eight presently airing), and the network has four shows waiting in the wings for mid-season. Now The CW does not necessarily have to cancel any existing shows to get those new entries on the schedule as there are still plenty of weeks left in the season (and they would do well to have less repeats than they did last Spring). But if the network execs believe that some of the new shows will strengthen one or more nights on their schedule, then they will almost certainly give the under-performer the boot. The three lowest rated shows for the network are currently The 100, Jane the Virgin, and Reign, with The 100 performing the best of that lot and Reign the worst (though that’s relative as they are all pretty close ratings-wise). So looking at it from that perspective, The 100 seems to have the best chance, but there are other factors to be taken into consideration. Jane the Virgin is certainly the least expensive of the three and it’s a critical darling. The 100 is probably the most expensive, though period drama Reign is likely a costly entry as well. And both of those latter two are regularly losing 40% or more of their lead-in show’s audience (Arrow and Vampire Diaries respectively). Jane the Virgin is losing around 30% to 40% of the audience of its lead-in (The Originals), but it gets a bit of a break because it airs on Mondays where The CW has struggled for several years. Thus, that show—even though lower rated than The 100—has the best chance of the three to get renewed in my opinion (not that I would prefer to see it get renewed, though). And that bodes poorly for The 100 and Reign, especially if one or more of the network’s mid-season entries performs even slightly better in the ratings. Still, the numbers for The 100 have been up a bit the last two weeks, so maybe the efforts by fans to get the word out about the show are doing some good (and I understand that the first season of the show just became available on Netflix).  I’m thinking that The 100 needs to get up to and sustain at least a 0.7 average in the 18-49 demo based on the overnights in order to make a strong case for a third season, and that’s definitely doable at this point.  The fans should continue to make noise on the social networks and just maybe they will be able to keep it alive.

Renewal Announcement:  Sean Bean has developed a reputation for playing characters that tend to get killed off, and it certainly seemed like that would happen again with his latest character Martin Odum in the TNT conspiracy drama Legends.  But he has apparently managed to beat the odds (and the low ratings) as the network announced yesterday that the show will be coming back for a second season.  The renewal is a bit of a surprise seeing as the show only averaged a 0.4 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights during its first season this past Summer.  But there may be some international partnerships and/or distribution deals helping it out, and perhaps the TNT network execs felt the show deserved a chance (I rather liked it).  It did not have too much in the way of the genre elements I expected to see, but it still likely appealed to some sci fi fans for its conspiracy storylines as well as the presence of Bean and Ali Larter (formerly part of the large Heroes cast).  The second season of the show will likely air in Summer of 2015 and it was the last of the Summer 2014 shows that we were waiting to receive word on.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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