Cancellation Watch: Resurrection and Constantine are Still Struggling

By | November 12, 2014


Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy airing Friday Nov 7th thru Monday Nov 10th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Haven Syfy Fri 11/7 7 PM
Rating: 0.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

This show remains low, but it looks like the second half of its fifth season is still going forward.

Grimm NBC Fri 11/7 9 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.9 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This one rebounded some from last week’s series low.  It should be okay if it can stay at or around this level

Constantine NBC Fri 11/7 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.1 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

Do you think that maybe NBC is wishing they had kept Dracula in the Friday 10 PM EST timeslot.  It’s ratings weren’t any better but it was cheaper because of its international partners.

Z Nation Syfy Fri 11/7 10 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.3 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

The numbers for this show continue to look decent for Syfy.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 11/2 8 PM
Rating: 2.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.4 | StD Rating: 2.9 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Down a tick from last week, but still doing well for ABC on Sundays.

Resurrection ABC Sun 11/2 9 PM
Rating: 1.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.6 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

How long can ABC let this one languish in what was once a very lucrative hour for them?

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 11/2 9 PM
Rating: 6.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.5 | StD Rating: 7.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It’s numbers dropped from last week, but it still beat Sunday Night Football and continues to pull in a monster-sized audience.

The Originals CW Mon 11/3 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show edged back up and is still pulling a decent ratings average for The CW on Monday nights.

Gotham FOX Mon 11/3 8 PM

Rating: 2.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.4 | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It dropped a few ticks this week, but it’s still one of FOX’s better rated shows for the season.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Mon 11/3 9 PM
Rating: 1.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It’s numbers remain low, but it is holding on because of FOX’s overall struggles and its relative ratings.

resurrection-abc-cancelledOn the Hot Seat: Resurrection fell back down to a 1.2 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 4.6 million total viewers on Sunday, leaving its fate in doubt.  And even though ABC just announced a full season pickup of Forever–which is hovering around the same ratings level–Resurrection may not get that same extended lease on life.  The network announced several weeks ago that they had ordered one more episode of the show which would bring it to a total of 14 for the season.  My speculation at the time was that the additional episode was being targeted as the series finale based on the show’s ratings drop shortly into its second season, and I believe that is still a reasonable conclusion.  But the full season pickup for Forever was unexpected and it’s not impossible the same could happen with Resurrection.  That former show has done well in DVR viewing (posting a 75% gain in Live+7 for the week ending October 26th) and the latter series has seen some decent gains as well (65% for that same week).  With Forever, though, it is in a difficult timeslot (Tuesdays 10 PM EST) where ABC has struggled for a while, so the pickup could have been in lieu of throwing another sacrificial show into that hour (and it is also not the same thing as a renewal as TV by the Numbers has pointed out).  Resurrection‘s 9 PM EST timeslot was once an hour where ABC dominated in the ratings when Desperate Housewives aired there for eight years.  So the network may be more eager to regain that piece of Prime Time real estate by placing something else in the hour that they believe may draw more viewers.   For now, I am raising the show to a Medium Cancellation Alert level and will probably leave it there until ABC gives some indication of where it stands.

Over on NBC, new entry Constantine appears to be in trouble as that one pulled only a 1.0 rating with 3.1 million total viewers on Friday night.  That’s a slight improvement from its Halloween night low, but not enough to keep the show safe.  Last Fall, Dracula averaged a 1.1 rating in the 18-49 demo based on the overnights, and that show got the ax even though international financing made it cheaper for NBC.  Constantine does not have any international partners and its numbers are currently no better (nor can it boast large DVR gains yet), so its prospects look very iffy at this point.  I am boosting it up to a Medium Cancellation Alert and that could raise higher if its ratings do not turn around.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

One thought on “Cancellation Watch: Resurrection and Constantine are Still Struggling

  1. Chris

    Constantine actually had big DVR gains, since the pilot episode increased 80% with L+7 DVR gains, and 75% L+7 boost with its second episode!

    Reply

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