Cancellation Watch: The Flash Accelerates Past Most Other Tuesday thru Thursday Sci Fi Shows

By | October 17, 2014

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

flash-the-cw-cancelledRatings Win: Never thought I would have been saying this, but a CW show was the highest rated genre show on the broadcast nets for the past three days.  The Flash pulled a 1.7 rating in the 18-49 with 4.3 million total viewers, which was down two ticks from last week’s premiere numbers of 1.9, but still very good for its network.  The show tied ABC’s Agents of SHIELD based on ratings and fell short of that one by about 400k total viewers, but AoS is an expensive, Big Four series that should be performing well above the fifth place network, so that still counts as a win.  All of the other genre shows from the past three days pulled lower numbers including Person of Interest on CBS and Forever on ABC.  The Flash has been a huge performer (relatively speaking) across its first two weeks and may deliver that lightning in a bottle that the struggling fifth place network really needs.

On the Hot Seat?  Person of Interest sunk to another low based on its ratings as it pulled only a 1.5 score in the 18-49 demo with 9.7 million total viewers.  But I am not raising the Cancellation Alert on this one just yet.  With its total viewer numbers, it is still doing well as that metric counts more with older-skewing CBS.  It is also performing well in the older demographic of viewers 25-54 where it had a 2.3 rating.  And it is now assured a syndication run as it will reach that 88 episode threshold by the end of the season, so keeping it going is actually more profitable than gambling on a new series, especially in its timeslot.  I would feel more comfortable if the show would level out, though, as it has dropped each week since its season premiere.  But I don’t think it is in danger at the moment.

Following are the full ratings results (metric definitions below) for the Tuesday thru Thursday shows with my comments. And keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news.  For more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

The Flash CW Tue 10/14 8 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers: 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show dropped just a little from last week’s 1.9 rating.  If it could stay at or above a 1.5 score, that would be a huge victory for the fifth place network

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 10/14 9 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers: 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.8 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Seriously? This show could only tie the numbers of a fifth place network entry?  Ratings-wise, it has become a pale shadow of what it was last season at this time.  (And it has definitely struggled quality-wise as well.)

Supernatural CW Tue 10/14 9 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers: 2.1 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Expect to see this show hold at about this level throughout the season and likely roll on into an eleventh year.

Forever ABC Tue 10/14 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers: 4.8 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Eelevated

Don’t let that order for additional scripts fool you.  ABC is just doing that to give the writers something to do while they hold off on any cancellations amidst all this ratings glitch ruckus.  But with these numbers, I can’t see this show getting an actual order for more produced episodes.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 10/14 10 PM
Rating: 1.5 | Tot Viewers: 9.7 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Believe it or not, the show is still doing okay, largely because of its total viewers and rating in the 25-54 demo which are more important to older-skewing CBS.  But I would like to see it level off its decline.

Arrow CW Wed 10/15 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers: 2.3 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Perhaps the drop was because people were watching It’s the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown over on ABC, and we will give them a pass for that.  But even at this level, Arrow is still doing okay for a CW show

American Horror Story FX Wed 10/15 10 PM
Rating: 2.3 | Tot Viewers: 4.5 | StD Rating: 2.7 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Don’t be too concerned about the ratings drop from last week’s 3.1 premiere numbers.  It had a similar slide last year then remained at about this level which is quite good for FX.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 10/16 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers: 2.0 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This show improved by a couple of ticks this week and may be picking back up some steam for The CW.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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