Cancellation Watch: Agents of Shield and Forever Are in Trouble, Star Wars Rebels Gets Renewed, Haven Gets Moved (Updated)

By | October 3, 2014


Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Updates below to the Ratings Results for Legends and Haven.

Agents-of-SHIELD-logoOn the Hot Seat:  Last week, ABC’s Agents of SHIELD debuted to moderate numbers and new entry Forever had a decent if not spectacular bow that at least held some hope for that one.  This week, though, the ratings returns delivered little good news for either shows.  Agents of SHIELD dropped to a series low of a 1.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic with five million total viewers and Forever could only muster a 1.3 rating with 5.7 million total viewers.  And those numbers are with the same competition that each show had the prior week.  Agents of SHIELD had already been on a ratings decline through most of last season and appears to be carrying that into this year.  We saw a similar thing previously where NBC’s Revolution debuted to strong numbers and high expectations in its first season but went on a downhill slide that extended to its second year and it ultimately received the ax.  Agents of SHIELD is an expensive entry and likely needs better numbers than what it has now to draw in sufficient advertising revenue to offset its costs.  It is part of the Avengers franchise and Disney owns ABC and will have the final say, but they are just as focused on the bottom line, so its future looks iffy (And I wonder what this will do to the Agent Carter series they have planned for mid-season).  I am raising the Cancellation Alert on this one to Moderate and it will go higher if those numbers do not improve.  As far as Forever, if you had asked me to pick the first genre casualty of the season a month ago, this one would have been it (I know, it’s easy to say that now).  At the 1.7/1.8 ratings level this show had last week, it had a chance to survive in the 10 PM hour.  But slipping to a 1.3 looks like too much of a drop.  Unless it gets its numbers back up (unlikely), I expect ABC will let this show air out its initial thirteen episode order then replace it with one of the shows they have waiting in the wings for mid-season.  This one is going to a Medium Cancellation Alert status and that will increase if the numbers don’t turn around.

Schedule Change:  Syfy has shifted Haven from Thursdays to the Friday 7 PM EST timeslot starting next week, and that move does not bode well for the show’s future.  It has already been pulling dismally low ratings on Thursdays this season and the 7 PM hour is outside of traditional Prime Time scheduling so I have to wonder if this amounts to a burn-off run for the show.  It was renewed last year for a twenty six episode fifth season that was planned to air in two parts.  At the moment, though, I wonder if they may call it quits after the thirteen episodes that have already been completed.  We will have to wait and see, but I am moving this one to a Medium Cancellation Alert at this point.

Series Debut: On Thursday, Vampire Diaries had its Season 6 debut and it could only muster a 0.9 rating in the 18-49 demo with 1.8 million total viewers (based on the preliminaries).  The good news is that the show is up from where it ended last season, but the bad news is that it is not up much and those are pretty low numbers even for The CW.  What’s more, the (non-genre) lead out series Reign could only muster a 0.4 rating on Thursday for its second season debut.  The fifth place network actually showed some life during the first half of the 2013-14 season as it delivered some of the most solid numbers it had seen in a while and managed to re-establish a foothold on Tuesdays with new entry The Originals and veteran series Supernatural.  But the ratings slump that hit all of the broadcast networks the second half of last season was particularly hard on The CW, and once again I have to wonder if this network might be in danger of shutting its doors.  I have definitely wondered of late whether one of the broadcast nets might falter, but I thought the chances for The CW surviving were good because it seems built more like a cable network and it showed noticeable improvement early last year.  We will have to see what the numbers look like for the rest of this network’s premieres this coming week, and I’m not raising the Cancellation Alert on Vampire Diaries at this point.  But I may be raising the Cancellation Alert on The CW as a network if it can’t turn things around.

Series Renewal:  Surprise, surprise, surprise!!!  Okay, no surprise: Disney XD has renewed Star Wars: Rebels for a second season, and that’s ahead of its premiere tonight (at 9 PM EST).  I already said that this one was pretty much a given to air as long as Disney wanted to keep it going, and this move reinforces that.  Like Star Wars: The Clone Wars, this series is mostly about keeping the franchise active and selling related merchandising.  As long as the ratings are even halfway decent, they will keep it going just as a commercial for the products it will be selling.  So maybe they should start selling Agents of SHIELD toys to help keep that show on the air . . .

Following are the full ratings results* for the Tuesday thru Thursday shows with my comments. And keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news.  For more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 9/30 9 PM
Rating: 1.8 | Tot Viewers: 5.1 | StD Rating: 2.0 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This once highly anticipated show now may be on its last leg.

Forever ABC Tue 9/30 10 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers: 5.7 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

Last week looked sort of promising for this show, but I am guessing this week is much closer to reality.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 9/30 10 PM
Rating: 1.8 | Tot Viewers: 10.7 | StD Rating: 0.0 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It’s rating improved slightly from last week and this show has typically not been impacted by large swings in its numbers.  Expect it to hold around here for now.

Legends TNT Wed 9/24 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | Tot Viewers: 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

(Updated) This show dropped to its lowest numbers yet and the upcoming season finale will almost certain be its series finale as well.  Quite a shame because it was an interesting show.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 10/2 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers: 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) Assuming The CW can remain viable, this one will likely get at least a shortened final season to wrap up all its storylines because that is the way the network usually rolls.

Haven Syfy Thu 9/25 8 PM
Rating: 0.2 | Tot Viewers: 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

(Updated) Will the move to Fridays at 7 PM EST help the numbers or does Syfy just not want this one dragging down its Prime Time averages anymore?  I don’t understand why Haven has fallen so far this year.

*Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

2 thoughts on “Cancellation Watch: Agents of Shield and Forever Are in Trouble, Star Wars Rebels Gets Renewed, Haven Gets Moved (Updated)

  1. Patricia Hampton

    If The CW is in trouble, I cannot understand why would rather provoke a boycott by Star-Crossed and The Tomorrow People fans than restore our shows and leverage our support.

    Reply
  2. Jennifer Harrison

    The CW has made some enemies over the past 3 years, during the reign of current president, Mark Pedowitz. Without a change in leadership, that network is doomed to fail. Hopefully other networks will pick up its scraps when it falls.

    Reply

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